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Old March 18th, 2017, 10:27 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by right to left View Post
Mostly northern Alberta. There are many other places in the world that also have tarsands deposits. What's made the Alberta tarsands so popular and the first to have major development is their proximity to markets and existing oil production infrastructure...and pliant governments!

The greatest danger of this development will be greatly enhanced if it expands to other sources around the world. As the last sources of conventional oil dry up and deposits in Venezuela or India are also developed, all this new glorious technology we hear about..cutting the costs of extracting bitumen and upgrading it to useable products will also move on and carbonize the rest of what's left with this world.
Actually here's a surprise for you, Saudi has lots of heavy oil and that has been known for a long time, but given the fact that they also have as much light oil as they can sell, why exploit the higher production cost stuff.

When the crude prices were $100+ I worked on a heavy oil exploitation plan for Saudi. But the prices dropped before the initial planning was done, let alone the detailed engineering began and we thus far have never gotten those prices again.

That is true of Venezuela also, but in their case they started running out of light crude so just started exploiting their heavy oil. Then Chavez nationalized and became more and more intrusive, virtually destroying their technical capabilities.
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Old March 19th, 2017, 12:09 PM   #32
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Actually here's a surprise for you, Saudi has lots of heavy oil and that has been known for a long time, but given the fact that they also have as much light oil as they can sell, why exploit the higher production cost stuff.
As I recall 10 years back, most of the predictions of global peak oil by late 2000's at the old Oil Drum blog and Oilprice.com were fueled largely on speculation stirred up by SA's apparently inability or unwillingness to boost oil production to prevent the market price from rising too high. Also fueling the speculation that their reserves are likely less than half of what's advertised through OPEC was the surprise, sudden move to put eastern (mostly Shia) territory reserves into production. These moves, along with rumors that the giant G'war oilfield is almost played out, were interpreted by outsiders as signs of desperation, and the beginning of the end for business as usual in the oil-based global economy.

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When the crude prices were $100+ I worked on a heavy oil exploitation plan for Saudi. But the prices dropped before the initial planning was done, let alone the detailed engineering began and we thus far have never gotten those prices again.
Worth noting that when the price of oil was over $100, it was too expensive to keep global capitalist economies functioning. So the economic collapse of 07/08 also shows the peak oil demand that began to collapse also, and bring oil prices down whether the majors liked it or not!

I discovered the Oil Drum at the time I was looking for real and relevant information about the BPGulf Blowout, that wasn't coming through mainstream sources. The Oil Drum was just a small group blog made up mostly of engineers and technicians in the oil industry talking about problems and future problems as oil exploration and development was having to go deeper underground and even underwater to maintain supplies for growing demand for oil.

Over time, the Oil Drum started getting discovered by thousands and even millions of online searchers, driving up their hits/but also their bandwidth costs! The contributors were mostly working or recently retired, but did not want to go into online marketing etc., so they never considered developing revenue streams and such for their blog; and a couple of years after the Gulf disaster, they were still having more visitors than expected, so they decided to slowly close it down, and contributors who joined them and wanted to continue on announced separate blogs or groups they were joining to pursue their activities.

One of them, an insurance actuary named Gail Tverberg started the Finite World blog to pursue the topics that drew her into the discussion: peak resource capabilities, environmental costs etc.. In one of her Oil Drum posts before the closure, she was starting to make a point about "peak oil" that most did not expect or forecast at the time: the collapse of high oil prices would become a permanent impairment/ not a temporary setback for tight oil developers, as capitalism would keep trying to grow and demand more product/but global capitalism would seize up each time, and prices would fall each time as recession replaced the boom.

Gail's main message was: of the essential non-renewable resources needed by modern industrial capitalist economies, cheap energy supplies are the most crucial! Without cheap energy, economic growth stalls out, and can no longer provide 2%, let alone 3% annual growth to keep our debt-fueled economies functioning!
What happens when energy resources deplete?
Posted by Gail the Actuary on June 19, 2010 - 10:12am
The Oil Drum | What happens when energy resources deplete?

So, after all that, Gail's and other peak resource writers' message is: the future is a world where there may be lots of oil and petroleum supplies/but their too costly for those who need them to continue to pay the price! Same goes for Saudi's heavy oil as it does for Alberta's tarsands, Venezuela's tarsands, the deep ocean oilfield off the coast of Brazil, and North Dakota's shale developments: energy return on energy invested is going to price carbon fuels out of business. Even now, one of the main reason why there are some speculators predicting oil will rise in price, is because so many tight oil developments have been shelved or drastically scaled back and take years and billions of dollars to see them through.

The problem for some of the peak oil/resource people who were focused on climate change and other environmental hazards, as we are now witnessing, is as supplies have dwindled, economies do not just shift over to cleaner, renewable sources of energy like could be expected in a perfect world case! Instead, the trend is for bar of environmental standards to keep being lowered so unconventional, dirty carbon-based energy supplies can continue development...even as it gets more and more expensive to do so!

This is usually how empires die and go out: not with a bang, but a whimper! For the Roman Empire, the problem wasn't invasions or even new virulent diseases/instead it was being rigid and unable to change their ways of doing things. That didn't happen until the total collapse of the dark ages ended Rome and the old system, and had to build a new system that was capable of functioning under the new, imposed constraints left after mines were exhausted and food-growing regions depleted.

The problem today with collapse, is that it will not stop the continued dangerous carbonizing of the atmosphere that will go on for several more centuries after we're gone. It would be easier if modern, global industrial capitalism could be brought to a close, but there are too few people even aware of the predicament/let alone trying to come up with ways to circumvent it and prevent destruction.
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Old March 19th, 2017, 12:30 PM   #33
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Standing up to the 'moron' in the White House - Winnipeg Free Press

Not only Canada but EVERY civilized country and every intelligent American should stand against trump the liar.
So now Canada is whining about the refugees it will take in because we won't? Did not excepting them ever enter into Canada's thinking? Does Canada think we are to apologize for not taking in these "supposed" refugees?
In this matter I support Canada. They can have them all. In fact, we've got between 11 and 20 million illegal alien parasites we could send them to jumpstart their bleeding-heart program.
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Old March 19th, 2017, 12:35 PM   #34
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So now Canada is whining about the refugees it will take in because we won't? Did not excepting them ever enter into Canada's thinking? Does Canada think we are to apologize for not taking in these "supposed" refugees?
In this matter I support Canada. They can have them all. In fact, we've got between 11 and 20 million illegal alien parasites we could send them to jumpstart their bleeding-heart program.
After they get the trumpfugees, a majority of our illegals and are stuck covering our % of the international war machine how long do the Canadian citizens will put up paying for that?

Huh?
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Old March 19th, 2017, 03:40 PM   #35
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A big thank you to RTL and RNG for an interesting, informative and civil discussion. DTT could use a lot more of it. Thanks again.
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