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Old October 24th, 2016, 09:20 PM   #1
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Cokes prediction

Ok, since Camelot at least had a pair with his Trump quits by Sept. 1st prediction, I am going to throw out one as well. Have at me you ungrateful masses

Here it is


Polling will indicate Trump tied or ahead of Hillary within 7 days of the election.
Reason
Because the one fear in the Hillary camp is voter turnout. It will be a coordinated move with the msm polling to scare the Obama base to vote for her.
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Old October 24th, 2016, 09:59 PM   #2
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There are mass CL job adds for political activists. Some even invoking the "hate trump" meme. Looks like ol' George is putting up a little extra cash.
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Old October 24th, 2016, 11:28 PM   #3
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Trump will win. Kek said so with the 77777777 GET.
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Old October 25th, 2016, 04:55 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coke View Post
Ok, since Camelot at least had a pair with his Trump quits by Sept. 1st prediction, I am going to throw out one as well. Have at me you ungrateful masses

Here it is


Polling will indicate Trump tied or ahead of Hillary within 7 days of the election.
Reason
Because the one fear in the Hillary camp is voter turnout. It will be a coordinated move with the msm polling to scare the Obama base to vote for her.


Sigh. Coke, we have discussed polling until we're blue in the face. It doesn't matter WHAT the polls say. Polls can be skewed by selecting an unreasonable sample size, by asking lead up questions or by selecting more of a sample population of one side of an issue to achieve a desired result. For instance, a poll that calls only landlines may leave out a whole demographic of younger, cellphone-only households. Some polls are opt-in, where users of a specific website answer questions. That's less reliable than a random sampling. Some polls have well-known biases. Rasmussen, for instance, is known to skew Republican. LA Times is really screwed up. There's the margin of error, lead questions, unlikely voters, and the fact that most pollsters only ask 1000 people. That's hardly a good indication of what millions will do.
Reality exists outside the margins.
This is especially a problem with polls close to Election Day. They're generally a snapshot in the week before the election. If something happens in the final days of campaigning, those final polls may not be as predictive.

It also matters how a pollster phrases and orders questions, and whether it's a phone interview, in-person interview, or online survey. Even the interviewer's tone of voice can matter. It takes days to analyze and extrapolate data from polls and by that time something with the candidates may have changed. That's been the case in the campaign because Trump is constantly saying or doing something outrageous.
Over 3 million people have already voted. We know who they are. We know what party they represent. We know their gender. We know whether their state is red or blue. So, once again--for the zillionth time. Look at the electoral map.
Not at the polls.
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Old October 25th, 2016, 05:11 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coke View Post
Ok, since Camelot at least had a pair with his Trump quits by Sept. 1st prediction, I am going to throw out one as well. Have at me you ungrateful masses

Here it is


Polling will indicate Trump tied or ahead of Hillary within 7 days of the election.
Reason
Because the one fear in the Hillary camp is voter turnout. It will be a coordinated move with the msm polling to scare the Obama base to vote for her.
Skews prediction.

Clinton 340 electoral votes. Conservative prediction. t will probably be 400.

Democrats pick up up 5 Senate seats. More likely 6 in the wave.

Democrats pick up 15 House seats. More like 20 in the wave.
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Old October 25th, 2016, 10:22 AM   #6
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CNN has Hillary down to +5, and that is with oversampling Dems by 5.


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Old October 25th, 2016, 10:34 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clara007 View Post
Sigh. Coke, we have discussed polling until we're blue in the face. It doesn't matter WHAT the polls say. Polls can be skewed by selecting an unreasonable sample size, by asking lead up questions or by selecting more of a sample population of one side of an issue to achieve a desired result. For instance, a poll that calls only landlines may leave out a whole demographic of younger, cellphone-only households. Some polls are opt-in, where users of a specific website answer questions. That's less reliable than a random sampling. Some polls have well-known biases. Rasmussen, for instance, is known to skew Republican. LA Times is really screwed up. There's the margin of error, lead questions, unlikely voters, and the fact that most pollsters only ask 1000 people. That's hardly a good indication of what millions will do.
Reality exists outside the margins.
This is especially a problem with polls close to Election Day. They're generally a snapshot in the week before the election. If something happens in the final days of campaigning, those final polls may not be as predictive.

It also matters how a pollster phrases and orders questions, and whether it's a phone interview, in-person interview, or online survey. Even the interviewer's tone of voice can matter. It takes days to analyze and extrapolate data from polls and by that time something with the candidates may have changed. That's been the case in the campaign because Trump is constantly saying or doing something outrageous.
Over 3 million people have already voted. We know who they are. We know what party they represent. We know their gender. We know whether their state is red or blue. So, once again--for the zillionth time. Look at the electoral map.
Not at the polls.
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Old October 25th, 2016, 11:07 AM   #8
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your prediction to be valid has to do better than chance 50/50.
I don't think it will.
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Old October 25th, 2016, 11:18 AM   #9
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your prediction to be valid has to do better than chance 50/50.
I don't think it will.
Leftists should beware the Silent Majority who are sick and tired of pulling the wagon.
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Old October 25th, 2016, 11:19 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Twisted Sister View Post
Leftists should beware the Silent Majority who are sick and tired of pulling the wagon.
there is no silent majority ,never has been
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