|April 5th, 2012, 11:29 AM||#1|
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Fort Rucker, Alabama
Amsterdam, Netherlands (CNN) -- The problem has become so complicated, that perhaps only a child can solve it. An 11-year-old Dutch boy, Jurre Hermans, entered a serious economics competition with a plan for bringing the Greek economy back from the brink.
In the end, Hermans, the youngest ever to enter the Wolfson Economics Prize, received a 100 euro voucher for his original idea -- conceived on the notion of exchanging debt for slices of pizza. Maybe Washington can invite him for some budget brainstorming. Meanwhile, Europe's crisis goes on, still in need of creative solutions.
Beyond the placid old Amsterdam canals, the bustling bike lanes and the quaint tulip fields, roils a furious debate about the future of the Netherlands. On the surface, the issue is what to do about the budget deficit. In reality, it is about whose life will become more difficult. Who will pay more? Who will receive less? It is a question coming soon to a deficit-spending country near you: the United States.
In other parts of Europe, in places like Greece and Spain, similar discussions have toppled several governments and have escalated into huge, sometimes violent protests, as people lash out in frustration against government decisions they find intolerable.
I believe that some time next year, with the election in the past, when either Barack Obama has started his second term or Mitt Romney has finished unpacking in the White House, Americans, too, will discover that budget debates are not just academic exercises or political theater. It's a good bet that just as Europe has come up against the reality that deficits cannot grow forever, so too will America. Investors, who have taken losses in the European debacle, will start looking at America's books, questioning its solvency, and demanding change.
The European economic crisis has unfolded most dramatically in Greece, where the economy has plunged into a depression. With its budget deficit and national debt rising out of control, the Greek government sought help from the eurozone, where rich countries demanded stark austerity measures in exchange for a bailout.
Greece, like other countries in Europe, had given up its own currency in exchange for the euro, so it did not have the option of printing more money or devaluing the currency to pull itself out of the mess created in part by politicians who gave voters what they wanted without troubling to bring up the unpleasant fact that someone, sooner or later, would have to pay.
Today, the Greek people are enduring economic pain that makes America look like a paradise of prosperity. Unemployment stands at 21%, wages are collapsing for both government and private sector workers.
A series of new taxes have been imposed, including a "solidarity" tax, new property taxes and higher self-employment taxes. The VAT, a national sales tax on all transactions, has jumped from 13% to 23%. The minimum wage has been been sharply cut. Poverty has increased dramatically.
After all that, Greece is still required by European rules to cut another 4.7% of gross domestic product from its budget, equivalent to the United States suddenly cutting more than $700 billion.
Even if it achieves those goals, or rather because it will enact such draconian cuts, the Greek economy is expected to sink deeper.
The European economic pact requires countries to keep their budget deficits below 3% of GDP. That became increasingly difficult as the world entered a recession. In Greece's case, the government had been concealing its deficit spending. In other countries, especially those that relied heavily on real estate, home prices collapsed, and tax revenues declined, opening up the budget gap.
The Dutch economy, one of the healthier ones, now faces a 4.6% deficit. There's talk of across-the-board pay freezes and even more social safety-net cuts, among other ideas. Unemployment is just 6%, but the country has returned to recession.
In Spain, the government wants to avoid requiring a bailout the way Greece, Ireland and Portugal have. The newly-installed government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy needs to slash the budget by 5.5% of GDP, even more than Greece.
Spain expects unemployment, already the worst in the developed world, to go over 24% this year, about the same experienced by the United States during the Great Depression.
The European crisis is far from over, but it already has important lessons for the United States, where federal deficit figures are treated as poison darts to be thrown among politicians, rather than as an important problem needing adult solutions.
The top three lessons from Europe are these:
• Deficits matter and sooner or later will have to be cut
• Trying to cut deficits in the middle of a recession makes the recession worse
• When the cutting starts, it will cause major social and political upheaval, as well as very real pain.
Unlike most European countries, the United States has the luxury of printing money and borrowing almost at will. The crisis in Europe has actually made it more attractive to lend to the United States, so it's easy to pretend the deficit and the debt don't matter. But America's deficit of about 10% of GDP and debt of $15 trillion, roughly 100% of GDP, cannot go on forever. Interest payments on the debt already consume more than $200 billion each year, and the debt is rising at blinding speed.
The United States was right to deal with the recession first before tackling the longer term problem. Europe is proving what the Hoover administration already showed in the 1930s, that cutting spending in a recession is counter-productive.
But, with the economy recovering, the time will soon come for the difficult decisions: Will the government cut defense spending, Social Security, or Medicare? Or perhaps other programs that keep millions out of poverty?
In the Netherlands, the ruling coalition has been brought to the edge of collapse over the choices. The far-right politician Geert Wilders demanded huge reductions in foreign aid. There is also talk of ending the mortgage tax deduction, along with other tax increases.
Social services have been reduced and food banks say they have seen an "explosion" in the number of clients. And the government is still looking for more cuts.
The choices go to the heart of a nation's character.
Voters in the United States should insistently demand that presidential candidates say exactly what they will do about the deficit.
They should also demand that politicians at long last resolve -- not just debate -- the problem.
Will politicians behave responsibly?
If you hear anyone say tax cuts alone will get the economy growing and fix the problem, don't believe it. Economists say spending cuts and tax increases are necessary.
If adults won't face up to the truth, maybe it's time to bring in the children for new ideas, and for a reminder of what's at stake.
Make the decision for yourselfs
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|April 5th, 2012, 12:21 PM||#3|
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Fort Rucker, Alabama
I am not in opposition with making a manufacturing base in America. I believe this is a huge driving factor in retoring America's future. I understand a lot of what you're saying I agree in a lot of what your saying. However, the mindless spending and borrowing has got to stop. We've done nothing constructive with the money we've spent besides saving banks and the auto industry.
Spending another 15T this way will kill us, not getting rid of the Fed will keep the wealth away from the people. The Fiat money based on faith is failing. We could try spending 15T on what your saying, to try to get some solvency back into our currency. What if it doesn't happen? What makes you believe Obama could make a difference? What makes you think Romney could make a difference? We're killing ourselves on both sides of the aisle, this is why I have no party affiliation besides letting people live out their lives the way the see fit and ONLY have enough money in circulation to keep the economy going, no more no less.
At some point the spending has to stop, and we have to start paying this debt back. I believe your economic theory will prevail or your idea of botch keynesian economics will prevail until collapse is the only outcome. Like, greece, france, ireland, spain, the neatherland and other countries in europe we will continue to spend without building anything real wealth until our economy collapses, plain and simple.
Fayt this is for you.
|April 5th, 2012, 12:34 PM||#4|
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Budget deficits are hardly a European problem!
If the US was a collection of sovereign countries like the EU, instead of a Federation of states, then dozens of states would have gone bankrupt decades ago.
Over 30 US states are net recipients of Federal funds and rely on the bigger states to foot the bill.
Eventually Americans will have to come to terms with the fact that increased taxation and less social welfare is inevitable.
|April 5th, 2012, 01:18 PM||#5|
Fayt Storm ON [OFF]
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Not in MD
Dan, you keep trying to equate the spending I'm advocating for with the spending of Bush and Reagan. That's wasteful spending. I'm advocating for investing. The Recovery Act in 2009 worked but worked poorly because it was less than half as much as it should had been. Economist Paul Krugman have a PHD in economics, he's a professor of economics, and he won a Nobel prize in 2009 for economics. He said in 2010 that we have a $2.9 Trillion dollar hole in the side of our economy as a result of 30 years of Reaganomics and Bill Clinton deregulation the banks (along with Phil Gram in 1999 and 2000) and we were trying patch it with an $800 billion dollar patch (actually about $500 billion because a 3rd of it was tax cuts which doesn't stimulate jack) and it wouldn't work. He's right.
Also the republicans blocked the legislation that require that stimulus money to be spent only in America and stop subsiding corporations for off shoring our manufacturing jobs. Despite that Dan the stimulus bill did create over 2 million jobs. IT WORKED. China put an $840 billion dollar stimulus at the same time we did and they required that single penny of the chines money be spent on Chines goods.
We the U.S. already have that law and it was passed in 1935. It's called the Buy American Act that required the government to buy things made in America manufactures. Of the G20 riches countries in the world,19 of them enforce their Buy Act. There's only 1 country that doesn't enforce it, us. Why? Because our legislator is bought and paid for by the big transnational corporations and no other country have an insane Supreme Court like we do that have set up and allowed, such a situation.
Try to understand what I'm taking about okay and stop equating wasteful spending with Keynesian spending... investing.
|April 5th, 2012, 01:30 PM||#6|
Join Date: Oct 2010
|April 5th, 2012, 01:35 PM||#7|
Fayt Storm ON [OFF]
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Not in MD
Thanks lad, that would have sound ridiculous.
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