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Old June 30th, 2014, 05:36 AM   #1
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: texas
Posts: 80
Odds Of Seven Hard Drives Crashing

I run a data center. Disk drives that are left running continuously last between two and three years. Three years is about 36 months.

The odds of a disk failing in any given month are roughly one in 36. The odds of two different drives failing in the same month are roughly one in 36 squared, or 1 in about 1,300. The odds of three drives failing in the same month is 36 cubed or 1 in 46,656. The odds of seven different drives failing in the same month is 37 to the 7th power = 1 in 78,664,164,096.

Of course this is very simplified because disk failure modes are more at end-of-service-life rather than linearly spread over median life. So what if I am off by a factor of 4X? This crude calculation gets us into the same astronomical ballpark. You could insure against this event happening by buying lottery tickets. --theBuckWheat Comment at Doug Ross @ Journal: GEORGE WILL ON MIRACULOUS IRS COINCIDENCE OF CRASHED HARD DRIVES: "Religions Have Been Founded on Less"
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Old June 30th, 2014, 06:30 AM   #2
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I have found it rather recreational watching the Left make their excuse for this. It's comedy at its' best, really...
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