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Old August 20th, 2017, 09:43 PM   #1
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Robot / drone autonomy: biggest thing since nuclear weapons?

Military robot / drone autonomy: biggest thing since nuclear weapons?
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I've heard people say autonomy is the biggest thing in military technology since nuclear weapons. David Martin / CBS

I think I might agree with that David. I mean, if what we mean by biggest thing is something that will change everything, I think autonomy is gunna change everything.
Pentagon's Dr. Will Roper: head of the Pentagon's Strategic Capabilities Office, commenting in context of the Pentagon's Perdix* autonomous aerial swarm drones
* named after a bird from Greek mythology
Autonomous robot technology is progressing swiftly.
Rocket scientist Elon Musk plans to have autonomous trucks running on California's highways soon.
"driverless" cars, literally automobiles without steering wheels, are already in development, with some automakers planning to introduce them to market.

Is there a pitfall here?
Is the U.S. taking the first steps toward dehumanizing itself by creating an entire class of machines, Pentagon hench-machines that use facial recognition software, hunt & kill?
And if it works on the battlefield, how long will it be before police departments start deploying robot police?

Of course that would start out seemingly benign: only searching for escaped murderers.
But after a school girl is raped it would be expanded to include sex offenders, and we're off to the races. Reductio ad absurdum, eventually it would include parking ticket scofflaws, and tax payers arrears in child-support payments.

Do we have the wisdom to limit the abusable potential here?
And if we implement such robot autonomy during the administration of a president more beloved than President Reagan, who wields robot autonomous power wisely, what do we do once the precedent is set, and then a president more dangerous and unpredictable than Trump takes office?

Just how bad is this going to end?
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Old August 21st, 2017, 10:02 AM   #2
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There are three concerns IMO. Abuse by the authorities. Errors by the machines and perhaps the biggest, susceptibility to hacking.

Seriously, the machine errors category is the smallest of my fears.
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Old August 21st, 2017, 01:42 PM   #3
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-If you guard your toothbrushes and your diamonds with equal zeal, you'll lose fewer toothbrushes, and more diamonds.- paraphrase McGeorge Bundy
You and I recognize the risk categories.

But we don't control the priorities of those responsible for controlling and containing this technology.

I don't expect the robots to take over the world before breakfast tomorrow.

But by whichever vector you've defined here R, I suspect eventually it's inevitable.

How long will it be before autonomous entities are battling for legal equality / parity with humans?

And will they eventually replace us entirely?
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Old August 21st, 2017, 03:50 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by titan View Post
You and I recognize the risk categories.

But we don't control the priorities of those responsible for controlling and containing this technology.

I don't expect the robots to take over the world before breakfast tomorrow.

But by whichever vector you've defined here R, I suspect eventually it's inevitable.

How long will it be before autonomous entities are battling for legal equality / parity with humans?

And will they eventually replace us entirely?
As I have said previously, I eagerly await autonomous cars. Soldiers/cops, not so much.
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Old August 21st, 2017, 04:38 PM   #5
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Skroo autonomous cars.
I want an autonomous lawnmower.
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Old August 21st, 2017, 05:57 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by titan View Post
Skroo autonomous cars.
I want an autonomous lawnmower.
Autonomous farm machinery and mining trucks are here now.
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Old August 22nd, 2017, 10:27 AM   #7
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Autonomous farm machinery and mining trucks are here now.
Autonomous farm machinery is here now but a human being has to fix broken autonomous farm machinery and a stupid computer operates autonomous farm equipment. That is why the Navy got in trouble using autonomous stupid computers to steer Destroyers.
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Old August 22nd, 2017, 10:39 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by titan View Post
You and I recognize the risk categories.

But we don't control the priorities of those responsible for controlling and containing this technology.

I don't expect the robots to take over the world before breakfast tomorrow.

But by whichever vector you've defined here R, I suspect eventually it's inevitable.

How long will it be before autonomous entities are battling for legal equality / parity with humans?

And will they eventually replace us entirely?
Gates, Hawkings, and Musk believe it'll be sooner rather than later.

You've not addressed at all autonomous machines with intelligence, "self programming" machines.

Humans are out of control, destroying both the earth and themselves.

Somebody or thing has got to get a handle on this situation. Jesus talked about it:
...For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now—and never to be equaled again.

“If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for the sake of the elect those days will be shortened.
Now, we gotta wonder who are "the elect?" That guy in the commercials, Newton???
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Old August 22nd, 2017, 11:00 AM   #9
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Gates, Hawkings, and Musk believe it'll be sooner rather than later.

You've not addressed at all autonomous machines with intelligence, "self programming" machines.

Humans are out of control, destroying both the earth and themselves.

Somebody or thing has got to get a handle on this situation. Jesus talked about it:
...For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now—and never to be equaled again.

“If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for the sake of the elect those days will be shortened.
Now, we gotta wonder who are "the elect?" That guy in the commercials, Newton???
Stephen Hawking never contributed anything useful for Physics and Hawking Radiation will soon be debunked. Hawking never won a Nobel Prize for anything and never will. Hawking is tragically disabled and sits on the Lucasian Chair which is mathematics at Cambridge University in England but Hawking knows nothing about math and Roger Penrose did the math for him. Roger Penrose won the Nobel Prize. Hawking don't know shit.
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Old August 22nd, 2017, 11:32 AM   #10
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"Autonomous farm machinery and mining trucks are here now." R #6
a) splendid

b) Not in my barn.

c) Not at my heavy equipment dealer.

d) Not in my neighborhood.

e) I've covered 1,000 miles of local rural countryside this year by bicycle.
As Yogi Berra observed, you can observe a lot just by looking.
Cattle ranch, farm, private residence; I've never seen any such thing:
- not here.
- not in commercial on TV or newspaper ad.

It's supply and demand.
There's plenty of demand out here. Matter of fact I just bought a brand new JD last year. I just don't have the time to mow all I've got to mow with the 22" mow swath of my walk-behind. The JD rider I got cuts a 48" swath, effectively cutting my mowing time in half.

BUT !!

I'd surely have considered buying an autonomous machine, if any were available for the task.
Not in central New York State they're not.

Thanks for mentioning A.I. it #8.
I've been following this virtually from the beginning.
I've seen the progression.
Very impressive.

I continue to believe a $TITANIC $market $niche is going unfilled for either machines, or software for "Artificial Intelligence" (A.I.) good enough to conduct an adult conversation.

Look at how fast cell-phone technology has advanced.
That's economy of scale. It would have cost one person many $billions to get a telephone that fits in a shirt pocket, etc.

It still cost many $billions.

BUT !!

The cost is distributed among hundreds of millions or more cell-phone users, rendering it affordable even to economic commoners.

A.I. would receive a stupendous infusion of technological advancement from competition and market demand.
Yet the niche continues to go unfilled.
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