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Old December 4th, 2017, 02:25 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by Marcus Livius View Post
That is North Korean propaganda and MSM fake news hysteria.

The Norks only have 700 guns and artillery launchers that can reach the northern parts of Seoul. They cannot all be fired at the same time and continuously. They must be pulled back into harden shelters after each salvo because the US and South Koreans will be firing back at them. The South Koreans also have extensive shelters and a plan to be able the evacuate their population completely out of the reach of artillery within the first day. A military study has concluded that the Norks will only be able to inflict casualties of 3-30,000 before the South Koreans and Americans completely destroy or silence those guns with the greatest bombardment from the air, sea, and land that North Korea will ever have even seen, faster if the Japanese want to join in.

There is also a matter of their supply train, condition of the ammunition, and accuracy, not to mention the condition of the guns themselves.

When North Korea attacked the South Korean island of Yeonpyeongdo with artillery in 2010, the 12 gun battery were only able to fire 170 out of 288 projected rounds. Out of the 170, only 80 manage to land on the island itself including the beach and surf.
Studies vary. Most of what you said is correct, however:
Regardless of these considerations and constraints on the North Korean side, if Pyongyang embraces the worst-case scenario for Seoul the indiscriminate targeting of the capital and its suburbs the damage would still be significant. Some research claims that overall damage and casualties in Seoul would be minimal, but those studies have relied on very conservative data, especially regarding the effective range of North Korean artillery systems. Many findings do not take into account newly deployed, modernized 122-mm multiple launch rocket systems with extended range, or the much more capable 300-mm multiple rocket launchers. If projectile flight distances reach proven ranges (or commonly accepted ones) and involve these new systems, then the northern portion of Seoul could be saturated with fire. Even areas south of the Han River could be within range of 170-mm self-propelled guns, 240-mm multiple rocket launchers or 300-mm multiple rocket launchers, depending on their position on the North Korean side of the DMZ. If every one of Pyongyang's 300-mm multiple rocket launcher systems were directed against Seoul, their range would be sufficient to rain fire across the city and beyond. A single volley could deliver more than 350 metric tons of explosives across the South Korean capital, roughly the same amount of ordnance dropped by 11 B-52 bombers.
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