Political Forums  

Go Back   Defending The Truth Political Forum > Political Issues > Environment

Environment Environmental Politics Forum - Environmental issues, global warming, pollution, and proposals


Thanks Tree7Thanks
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old September 27th, 2017, 11:44 AM   #1
forgot my old user name
 
right to left's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,570
The Real Longterm Climate Threat

About a week-and-a-half to two weeks ago, I stumbled across a story from a small, climate and environment blogger and I can't even track back to the original source because it's been so poorly covered, the new study doesn't show up in searches I've made.

Regardless, it was about a research study conducted at the University of Leicester by Polish-born British mathematician- Sergei Petrovskii and his team, which followed up some unnoticed work they had done a year earlier studying how phyto-plankton react to increasing temperatures....namely how is photosynthesis affected by increasing water temperatures. This is very important today because...though most people think oxygen is produced primarily by trees, more than 50% of the Earth's oxygen supply is actually produced in the oceans through photosynthesis by phytoplankton. It has already been noted that oxygen production is highest in colder temperatures and drops steadily as temperatures rise(think of the Arctic and Antarctic oceans as the jungles of the sea, while blue tropical waters are actually the deserts!).

Anyway, Petrovskii and co.'s report estimates that ocean oxygen production will be severely reduced as soon as the end of the current century if global average temperatures rise 4 degrees...as expected under the current regime of doing little or nothing about the crisis. At 6 degrees warming, what's truly alarming is that phytoplankton start consuming more oxygen than they produce and the planet's oxygen levels will begin a long, slow decline similar to an effect discovered during the worst mass extinction of all time - the Permian-Triassic "Great Dying" event of 250 million years ago. It should be added that Petrovskii's just looking at marine life, but botanists studying trees and land plantlife see the same effects of declining photosynthesis under high temperatures. So a future 'great dying' that takes out all large complex life(including humans) in the deep future may happen quicker than forecast:
Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change
http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/mat...nces/jtb-2017b

Quote:
a b s t r a c t

It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system’s dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster.

1.
Introduction

Global climate change is arguably one of the greatest challenges that the mankind is currently facing ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014 ). Although its reasons and driving forces (i.e. natural or anthropogenic) remain to be a focus of discus- sion and some controversy, the basic fact that the average tem- perature is rising is clearly seen in many observations and can hardly cast any doubt ( Hansen et al., 2010; 2006 ). The effect of the global warming by now remains relatively minor; hence, questions are sometimes asked whether our generation really should bother much about it as the consequences, if any, apparently lie in a re- mote future. However, a pessimistic scenario of the global warm- ing dynamics predicts the increase in the average Earth’s surface temperature by about 4 °C by the end of this century, and this is the threshold where melting of Antarctic ice is expected to start resulting in a flooding on a global scale. It means that the gloomy future is not so remote after all: recently born children have a high chance to experience the full force of awakened Earth during their lifetime. Global flooding is likely to bring a huge damage to economies and societies all over the world as it will undoubtedly result in poverty, hunger, outbreaks of dangerous diseases etc. However, the overall consequences of the global warming can be far worse than that. Recently, a new ecological disaster resulting from the global warming was reported ( Sekerci and Petrovskii, 2015a ) that ultimately can kill most of life on Earth. It was shown using a mathematical model of the coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics that, as a response to an increase in average water temperature by several degrees, phytoplankton would stop producing oxygen. As more than one half of the total stock of atmospheric oxygen is produced by the ocean phytoplankton (Harris, 1986; Moss, 2009 ) (in the process called photosynthesis), such a stop would soon result in the oxygen level dropping down considerably, which could make the air unbreathable for humans and most of animals. Admittedly, the apocalyptic prediction of the global oxygen depletion remains hypothetical as it was made in a theoretical study based on a rather simple, albeit general, mathematical model. 1

More research is required before this could be accepted as a well established scientific fact. A thorough research into this issue should include laboratory studies, microcosm experiments and field studies as well as further development of theory and models. However, a comprehensive empirical study requires considerable resources and careful planning, which may take many years to arrange. On the other hand, the seriousness of the problem, which is literally a “life or death”issue, does not make it sensible to simply wait until relevant field and/or laboratory data become available. Refining and extending the approach based on mathematical modelling is therefore the only way to proceed that is efficient and readily doable.

Correspondingly, in this paper we are going to revisit the model of plankton-oxygen dynamics introduced in Sekerci and Petrovskii (2015a ) with the purpose to further establish its biological relevance (in particular, by revealing its relation to a class of more realistic models of marine ecosystem) and to check the robustness of the model predictions for different scenarios of global warming.
http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/mat...nces/jtb-2017b

So, if anyone with more tolerance for charts and mathematical equations than I have wants to look it up, they can look over their analysis. For me the takeaway is simple: oxygen production is slowing and by 6 degrees global warming, the planet is in a prolonged death spiral where plants are taking up more oxygen than they provide for animal life on the planet!

About 10 years ago, I came across some interviews and later looked up a couple of videos of lectures by paleontologist-Peter D. Ward, who made his name as a young scientist by finding a layer of radioactive iridium in virtually all rock layers of 63 million years ago...the remnants of a giant asteroid impact that the Alvarez team he was working for had been seeking to prove their theory that the "Dinosaur Extinction" was caused or at least mostly caused by an extraterrestrial event.

Ward was later sent off to the Canary Islands to look through 250 million year old rock strata for a similar event to find evidence of asteroid impact causing the Great Dying. But Ward couldn't find an iridium layer or any other signs of asteroids or comets, but what he did find puzzling was evidence of hydrogen sulfide in the rock layers...a telltale sign that anaerobic cyanobacteria were poisoning the atmosphere. Ward ended up stuck on his own with no more funding and had to look for his own to finish the job and followup on his own hunch that natural earth processes..primarily vulcanism were the main cause of that massive extinction of life.

After it was all done, Ward published a general level book on what he discovered about that extinction, and what he felt the public should know about:

https://www.amazon.com/Under-Green-S.../dp/0061137928

In Under A Green Sky, Ward proposed that the formation of a gigantic slow-moving volcanic flood basalt plain known today as the Siberian Traps had been pumping so much CO2 and other noxious gases into the atmosphere that normal life was unable to sequester the carbon and a rise in carbon dioxide levels took off as well as a dramatic decline in the planet's oxygen levels. This is what primarily caused the Great Dying. During the peak of the extinction, oxygen levels at sea level would have been the equivalent of trying to breathe the air at 30,000 feet!

Over time, more and more paleontologists, geologists and other scientists started coming over to Ward's side of what caused the extinction, which presented a case that today's rapid rise in CO2 levels was setting the stage for a similar type of mass extinction event...but at an even faster pace!
And with Petrovskii's work, we have the explanation for the other piece of the puzzle: why did oxygen levels drop during the extinction!

Next comes the philosophical conundrum: what moral obligations do we have to future generations who come after us...not to mention obligations to non-human life forms who would flourish without our interference?
Many selfish bastards...especially in this day and age will say: let the future take care of itself or some other claptrap about them having to innovate their way out of future predicaments like this. But, I'm sure as hell that nobody alive today would have appreciated the generations living 500 years ago having the power to end or severely degrade the lives of those who followed them...so what about the future!


Further references:
http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/mat...nces/jtb-2017b

Surface Dwelling Plankton Found Responsible For Past Mass Extinctions - Russ George

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11970
right to left is offline  
Old September 27th, 2017, 12:30 PM   #2
Senior Member
 
Twisted Sister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Brown Township, Ohio
Posts: 10,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by right to left View Post
About a week-and-a-half to two weeks ago, I stumbled across a story from a small, climate and environment blogger and I can't even track back to the original source because it's been so poorly covered, the new study doesn't show up in searches I've made.

Regardless, it was about a research study conducted at the University of Leicester by Polish-born British mathematician- Sergei Petrovskii and his team, which followed up some unnoticed work they had done a year earlier studying how phyto-plankton react to increasing temperatures....namely how is photosynthesis affected by increasing water temperatures. This is very important today because...though most people think oxygen is produced primarily by trees, more than 50% of the Earth's oxygen supply is actually produced in the oceans through photosynthesis by phytoplankton. It has already been noted that oxygen production is highest in colder temperatures and drops steadily as temperatures rise(think of the Arctic and Antarctic oceans as the jungles of the sea, while blue tropical waters are actually the deserts!).

Anyway, Petrovskii and co.'s report estimates that ocean oxygen production will be severely reduced as soon as the end of the current century if global average temperatures rise 4 degrees...as expected under the current regime of doing little or nothing about the crisis. At 6 degrees warming, what's truly alarming is that phytoplankton start consuming more oxygen than they produce and the planet's oxygen levels will begin a long, slow decline similar to an effect discovered during the worst mass extinction of all time - the Permian-Triassic "Great Dying" event of 250 million years ago. It should be added that Petrovskii's just looking at marine life, but botanists studying trees and land plantlife see the same effects of declining photosynthesis under high temperatures. So a future 'great dying' that takes out all large complex life(including humans) in the deep future may happen quicker than forecast:
Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change
http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/mat...nces/jtb-2017b


http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/mat...nces/jtb-2017b

So, if anyone with more tolerance for charts and mathematical equations than I have wants to look it up, they can look over their analysis. For me the takeaway is simple: oxygen production is slowing and by 6 degrees global warming, the planet is in a prolonged death spiral where plants are taking up more oxygen than they provide for animal life on the planet!

About 10 years ago, I came across some interviews and later looked up a couple of videos of lectures by paleontologist-Peter D. Ward, who made his name as a young scientist by finding a layer of radioactive iridium in virtually all rock layers of 63 million years ago...the remnants of a giant asteroid impact that the Alvarez team he was working for had been seeking to prove their theory that the "Dinosaur Extinction" was caused or at least mostly caused by an extraterrestrial event.

Ward was later sent off to the Canary Islands to look through 250 million year old rock strata for a similar event to find evidence of asteroid impact causing the Great Dying. But Ward couldn't find an iridium layer or any other signs of asteroids or comets, but what he did find puzzling was evidence of hydrogen sulfide in the rock layers...a telltale sign that anaerobic cyanobacteria were poisoning the atmosphere. Ward ended up stuck on his own with no more funding and had to look for his own to finish the job and followup on his own hunch that natural earth processes..primarily vulcanism were the main cause of that massive extinction of life.

After it was all done, Ward published a general level book on what he discovered about that extinction, and what he felt the public should know about:

https://www.amazon.com/Under-Green-S.../dp/0061137928

In Under A Green Sky, Ward proposed that the formation of a gigantic slow-moving volcanic flood basalt plain known today as the Siberian Traps had been pumping so much CO2 and other noxious gases into the atmosphere that normal life was unable to sequester the carbon and a rise in carbon dioxide levels took off as well as a dramatic decline in the planet's oxygen levels. This is what primarily caused the Great Dying. During the peak of the extinction, oxygen levels at sea level would have been the equivalent of trying to breathe the air at 30,000 feet!

Over time, more and more paleontologists, geologists and other scientists started coming over to Ward's side of what caused the extinction, which presented a case that today's rapid rise in CO2 levels was setting the stage for a similar type of mass extinction event...but at an even faster pace!
And with Petrovskii's work, we have the explanation for the other piece of the puzzle: why did oxygen levels drop during the extinction!

Next comes the philosophical conundrum: what moral obligations do we have to future generations who come after us...not to mention obligations to non-human life forms who would flourish without our interference?
Many selfish bastards...especially in this day and age will say: let the future take care of itself or some other claptrap about them having to innovate their way out of future predicaments like this. But, I'm sure as hell that nobody alive today would have appreciated the generations living 500 years ago having the power to end or severely degrade the lives of those who followed them...so what about the future!


Further references:
http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/mat...nces/jtb-2017b

Surface Dwelling Plankton Found Responsible For Past Mass Extinctions - Russ George

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11970
When sailing on green ocean water that is phytoplankton and when sailing on blue ocean water no phytoplankton. When sailing at night on green water and your wake makes the waves light up, that is zooplankton.
Thanks from right to left
Twisted Sister is offline  
Old September 28th, 2017, 10:41 AM   #3
forgot my old user name
 
right to left's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,570
Quote:
Originally Posted by Twisted Sister View Post
When sailing on green ocean water that is phytoplankton and when sailing on blue ocean water no phytoplankton. When sailing at night on green water and your wake makes the waves light up, that is zooplankton.
You could be right...I guess phytoplankton have no reason to stay on the surface at night when the sun isn't shining.

I wonder how 'green' our oceans will be in the future as they warm up! The clear, blue waters of tropical oceans...like you see if you go scuba diving in the Caribbean, do not have enough photosynthesizing plant life as is to support all the fish and marine mammals. Many...especially large baleen whales, get most of their food supply near the poles and are only in the tropics because they have to cross them between their annual migrations from Arctic to Antarctic. Imagine a world with no more ice and its easy to figure without reports like the one I posted, that the oceans become dead zones as the waters get warmer! The studies contending that phytoplankton will stop photosynthesis after a certain point explain past warming calamities that have let geological markers of dead oceans.

According to Peter Ward's work on late Permian rock strata, the only place in the world where complex life survived was likely The Tethy's Sea...the giant inland sea of the supercontinent- Pangea. That was a close call then, but after the rupture that caused the Siberian Traps to form had ended, then everything could return back to normal. the scary thing about the present day calamity is we are still stuck in an economic system demanding increasing amounts of sequestered carbon to be dug up and released all at once into the atmosphere. The rate and scale of the human capitalist calamity looks worse, cause it doesn't show any sign of coming to an end yet!
Thanks from imaginethat
right to left is offline  
Old September 28th, 2017, 11:01 AM   #4
I'm debt free
 
TNVolunteer73's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Lebanon, TN
Posts: 33,646
Climate has been a Changing for a few billion years now.

No climate change no life on earth.

you see, warming and cooling cycles is what replenishes the fresh water tables.

Great lakes would be dry, no amazon nile or mississppi rhine rivers.

people cannot drink salt water.
TNVolunteer73 is offline  
Old September 28th, 2017, 11:17 AM   #5
forgot my old user name
 
right to left's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,570
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNVolunteer73 View Post
Climate has been a Changing for a few billion years now.

No climate change no life on earth.

you see, warming and cooling cycles is what replenishes the fresh water tables.

Great lakes would be dry, no amazon nile or mississppi rhine rivers.

people cannot drink salt water.
Do some light reading about the actual earth sciences and you'll find that the hot times that were mostly caused by continents dividing and then crashing into each other again, are also the times of extinction and at least once before...a mass extinction that almost turned Planet Earth back into a solely microbial world it had been for the first 2 billion years of life on the planet.

So, it's worth noting that complex, multicellular life is the anomaly...that requires delicately balanced ecosystems, while the simple organisms that existed all alone prior and have carried on playing important roles in managing ecosystems all along, are always waiting in the wings for catastrophe to unfold; and that's when they get to take centerstage and have the whole world to themselves.

The strange dilemma today is that a species with an over-exalted opinion of itself and its powers, is set to be the agent of catastrophe that pulls the plug on Earth's grand experiment with life!
right to left is offline  
Old September 28th, 2017, 12:30 PM   #6
I'm debt free
 
TNVolunteer73's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Lebanon, TN
Posts: 33,646
Quote:
Originally Posted by right to left View Post
Do some light reading about the actual earth sciences and you'll find that the hot times that were mostly caused by continents dividing and then crashing into each other again, are also the times of extinction and at least once before...a mass extinction that almost turned Planet Earth back into a solely microbial world it had been for the first 2 billion years of life on the planet.

So, it's worth noting that complex, multicellular life is the anomaly...that requires delicately balanced ecosystems, while the simple organisms that existed all alone prior and have carried on playing important roles in managing ecosystems all along, are always waiting in the wings for catastrophe to unfold; and that's when they get to take centerstage and have the whole world to themselves.

The strange dilemma today is that a species with an over-exalted opinion of itself and its powers, is set to be the agent of catastrophe that pulls the plug on Earth's grand experiment with life!
Look at 400,000 years of climate What is out of place with this current warming cycle,, it is on time, it is the coolest of the 5 major warming periods, but not significantly cool. notice CO2 follows the same cycle.

on time, climate is a cycle, peaks and troughs of a sine wave.. like a radio frequency.

TNVolunteer73 is offline  
Old September 28th, 2017, 02:07 PM   #7
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: California
Posts: 213
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNVolunteer73 View Post
Climate has been a Changing for a few billion years now.
Your ignorant bullshit just further demonstrates how simple minded and gullible you are.

The Earth's climate patterns usually change very slowly and have often been very stable for long periods of time, millions of years in some cases.

The natural changes that occurred in the past have very little to do with the current extremely abrupt and rapid un-natural climate changes, that are being driven by the global warming that mankind's forced 46% increase (so far) in CO2 levels, over the previously stable natural CO2 levels, has created.







Quote:
Originally Posted by TNVolunteer73 View Post
No climate change no life on earth.

you see, warming and cooling cycles is what replenishes the fresh water tables.

Great lakes would be dry, no amazon nile or mississppi rhine rivers.

people cannot drink salt water.
More total bullshit based on ignorance. None of that is actually true.
Thanks from RNG
Ahgho Boogheroff is offline  
Old September 29th, 2017, 11:58 PM   #8
forgot my old user name
 
right to left's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,570
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNVolunteer73 View Post
Look at 400,000 years of climate What is out of place with this current warming cycle,, it is on time, it is the coolest of the 5 major warming periods, but not significantly cool. notice CO2 follows the same cycle.

on time, climate is a cycle, peaks and troughs of a sine wave.. like a radio frequency.

Well, first off, your graph...which image info sources to Skeptical Science, looks like it's been doctored a bit..or at least the image has been cropped! Because that right side is still showing everything within the historical upper CO2 limit of the Pleistocene - 300ppm. And you sure as hell can't argue that as we're arriving at this year's annual low point of just under 404 ppm! So that natural cycle is busted!

If that graph is based on Antarctic ice core data...which it almost certainly would be, we could go back further...as far as 800,000 years and see the same pattern of CO2 fluctuations between about 180 and usually(but not always) 300 ppm.. So, venturing back above 400 puts us in new territory, since we were likely in what would have been a brief interglacial thaw before carbon levels would have dropped again and the glaciers would have resumed their march southward as they did many times during the 2.5 million year Pleistocene Epoch. Today's flora and fauna had evolved during a time when the Earth was usually much colder at the temperate zones and just this brief warming of the last 12000 years had already caused many large animals to die off. How many more will follow as the full impacts of 400+CO2 levels set in?
Thanks from imaginethat
right to left is offline  
Old September 30th, 2017, 11:22 AM   #9
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: California
Posts: 16,999
So about all that's been proven, is that the earth goes through long periods of climate change, even when man was not around.
caconservative is offline  
Old September 30th, 2017, 11:28 AM   #10
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: massachusetts
Posts: 8,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNVolunteer73 View Post
Climate has been a Changing for a few billion years now.

No climate change no life on earth.

you see, warming and cooling cycles is what replenishes the fresh water tables.

Great lakes would be dry, no amazon nile or mississppi rhine rivers.

people cannot drink salt water.
That's not climate change, it's called "rain"
goober is offline  
Reply

  Defending The Truth Political Forum > Political Issues > Environment

Tags
catastrophes, climate, ecological, longterm, real, regime, shifts, threat



Thread Tools
Display Modes


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Pope Thinks Climate Change Is a Major Threat. So Do American Catholics. imaginethat Current Events 61 January 2nd, 2015 07:43 PM
U.S. Military Considers Climate Change a 'Threat Multiplier' - Increases Terrorism klaatu Current Events 22 October 21st, 2014 02:39 PM
Weekly Address: Confronting the Growing Threat of Climate Change The White House The White House 0 June 29th, 2013 01:51 AM
Africa: Pastoralists Face Climate Change Threat intangible child Africa 1 December 30th, 2009 08:06 PM
A real threat? tyreay Environment 9 June 26th, 2006 09:32 AM


Facebook Twitter RSS Feed



Copyright © 2005-2013 Defending The Truth. All rights reserved.