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Old September 2nd, 2015, 08:38 PM   #11
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Doesn't Crimea give them essentially a warm water port?
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Old September 2nd, 2015, 09:04 PM   #12
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Doesn't Crimea give them essentially a warm water port?
for any ship they can get through istanbul. a port directly on the mediterranean would be better. mind you, a port in syria would not be connected directly to russia, so it would have its limitations. would it be worth it? i guess we are about to find out.
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Old September 2nd, 2015, 10:59 PM   #13
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i disagree.
the key parts of syria may be in tact, but more than half the country is occupied by IS and they are advancing. assad has multiple enemies and no support in his own region. he is failing now and isnt going to win long term. all russia might achieve is to slow down his fall.

if russia does jump in, they become the defacto government of eastern syria, and they become the target for IS. then it becomes afghanistan again. and russia doesnt need the oil, they have their own huge reserves, they might like to have a warm water port on the mediterranean but is this important enough to warrant billions of roubles and a few hundred deaths per year?

IS need legitimacy, and a recognised city that has previously been the capital of a caliphate will earn them a huge psychological win and increase their support globally. earlier they were aiming for baghdad, but they seem to have cut that idea and are going for damascus. they will probably get it. assad might go into exile in russia, if he survives.

unless russia jumps in with all guns blazing, and goes for scorched earth policy, exterminating anyone who looks like they might have once even helped anyone who has opposed assad. in that case they will be fighting multiple groups of guerilla forces, capable of melting into the civilian population. they will right where the US was in iraq and afghanistan, or they will just say fuck it, and accept several million civilian casualties.
Maybe. The oil isn't about what Russian needs, the oil is about denying its funds to their enemies. Hell maybe I am wrong. I just think you underestimate the bear
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Old September 2nd, 2015, 11:26 PM   #14
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Maybe. The oil isn't about what Russian needs, the oil is about denying its funds to their enemies. Hell maybe I am wrong. I just think you underestimate the bear
i think russia is quite capable of invading and occupying syria. they have the military capability and they have the arrogance. and they lack the morals to the point they could suppress any local opposition. but i dont see they get much out of it, i dont see its worth the effort on their part. as i said above, i guess we are about to find out.
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Old September 3rd, 2015, 12:13 AM   #15
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I am not sure anyone wants to defend that regime, but, that regime compared to ISIS? What is it lefties say all the time? Something about Saddam was a asshole but should have been left alone to keep stability. Syria is probably the same thing. So, if your choice is the Syrian regime or ISIS, I think I will take Syria. Besides the dog and pony show is because North Korea did actually attempt to send weapons to Syrian government a few times. I think some ships were seized etc. etc.
Yea, exactly. Considering that Saddam was worse than Assad and ISIS is worse than the groups in Iraq, it's pretty ridiculous that the left wants Assad gone while ISIS trolls the countryside doing every possible bad thing.
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Old September 3rd, 2015, 03:37 AM   #16
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Doesn't Crimea give them essentially a warm water port?
A warm water naval base, though Sochi is a warm water port. Murmansk is an ice-free port, and St. Petersburg is mostly ice-free.
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