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Old September 30th, 2016, 10:08 AM   #1
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New Poll Puts Mayor of Cormorant, Minnesota Ahead of Hillary and Trump

A new national poll has found that 54% of potential voters favor the mayor of Cormorant, Minnesota over either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. The poll surveyed a spectrum of potential voters and has a statistical margin of error of -3/+3%.

Here is the mayor of Cormorant, Minnesota: Duke, a nine-year-old Great Pyrenees. Duke has been re-elected twice, most recently at the end of August.(source: Zero Hedge)

The point being made here is polling is easily gamed. First, pick your goal: you want the poll to find Duke is favored above Hillary and Trump.

Next, select groups that are likely to vote in line with your goal. For example, start with subscribers to the Bark, Dog Fancy and other dog-owner magazines.

Then select leading questions:

1. If you could select a candidate other than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, would you do so?

2. Would you be willing to take a chance on an elected official from small-town America, despite his/her lack of national experience?

3. Given that more Americans believe in BigFoot than believe the mainstream media is fair and accurate, are you open to an “outsider” candidate for the presidency?

4. Given the choice between the twice-re-elected mayor of Cormorant, Minnesota, and either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, who would you likely vote for?

And that’s how you rig a poll to find that more Americans would vote for Duke the mayor than for either Hillary or Trump.

Please read this 17-page PDF explanation of a recent poll carefully and tease apart how it was carefully engineered to get the desired result. OK, I didn’t want to invest all the time and energy, either, but fortunately for us, correspondent Mark G. has done the heavy lifting.

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters (17 page PDF)

Here is Mark’s analysis: “This one with Hillary +6% is a good example.

First, the sample on page two is very uninformative.

Democrats 752

Republicans 570

Independents 216

Total 1538

These affiliations don’t sum to the stated survey size (1705), or the number of registered voters (1411), or “likely voters” (1041). We can note the political affiliations recorded exceed the number of those registered. How you can be affiliated without registering…? If this were the case, why were all 1,705 in the survey assigned to a group?

However, of the political affiliations that are disclosed, Democrats were 48.89% (752/153 = 0.4889. in other words, 12 to 16 points higher than actual identification in the US population.

This is the composted manure these “polls” consist of now.

I think their sole purpose at this point is to game the poll averages and thus support a predetermined narrative in the MSM.”

New Poll Puts Mayor of Cormorant, Minnesota Ahead of Hillary and Trump
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Old October 1st, 2016, 05:57 AM   #2
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OK, you make the point that a poll can be manipulated to show whatever the pollster wants it to show.
So what if the pollster wants it to show the election results in advance?
What if the polling company is most concerned with it's reputation as a polling company?
What if the polling organization wants to measure exactly what it says it wants to measure?
If it actually is interested in producing a useful piece of information that it can sell, then it doesn't find that the Mayor of Cormorant is the likely winner in November.

That is why people who are looking at polls are concerned with the reputation of the pollsters as well as the numbers they produce.
That is why I look at a number of polls, it's why I look at the previous results from each poll, to account for the bias that may cause a poll to vary from the actual thing it's attempting to measure.
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