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Old July 3rd, 2018, 11:05 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Sabcat View Post
If you put "science" in the name and/or description of anything and the leftists get all moist over it and it suddenly becomes infallible. Just like the religious and "god says"

It is epically sad.
That may be true, but why would a good liberal feel the need to defend polls? Seriously, if I was the left I would be so mad at the polling I would be holding their feet to the fire. I guess they would rather hear feel good news than the truth.
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Old July 3rd, 2018, 05:02 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by guy39 View Post
Yes, but you are not getting the picture. 80% chance of winning. Were not talking about a random dice roll.
If you can't recognize the correlation between the two, then you're not worth the effort.
80% chance of winning => Trump has a 20% chance of winning. => He has a chance
And the fact that he won demonstrates that as well...


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Originally Posted by guy39 View Post
We are talking about an alleged, unbiased (LMAO) scientific sampling method to deduct a percentage of win or lose chance. Even the fucking pollsters said they were wrong. Yet here you are compelled to argue with them even.
Jesus you guys often refuse to see the forest for the trees...
The reasons discussed in those articles are the reasons why these polls have a +/- error margin in the first place.

Honestly, I would love to see all the conservatives who mindlessly bash polling to honestly post their highest level of math completed. I bet we could find another correlation with low education level.
Those who have taken statistics can recognize the various aspects of the statistical model that impact the overall conclusion.


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Originally Posted by guy39
That may be true, but why would a good liberal feel the need to defend polls?
Part of your problem is you treat it like a liberal v conservative issue when it's not.
It's an EDUCATION issue in understanding what goes into a polling model and WHY the +/- 3% margin exists in the first place.

But sadly, too much conservatism revolves around a lack of education and ergo we have a correlative (not causation) link to politics.
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Old July 3rd, 2018, 05:18 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by foundit66 View Post
If you can't recognize the correlation between the two, then you're not worth the effort.
80% chance of winning => Trump has a 20% chance of winning. => He has a chance
And the fact that he won demonstrates that as well...



Jesus you guys often refuse to see the forest for the trees...
The reasons discussed in those articles are the reasons why these polls have a +/- error margin in the first place.

Honestly, I would love to see all the conservatives who mindlessly bash polling to honestly post their highest level of math completed. I bet we could find another correlation with low education level.
Those who have taken statistics can recognize the various aspects of the statistical model that impact the overall conclusion.



Part of your problem is you treat it like a liberal v conservative issue when it's not.
It's an EDUCATION issue in understanding what goes into a polling model and WHY the +/- 3% margin exists in the first place.

But sadly, too much conservatism revolves around a lack of education and ergo we have a correlative (not causation) link to politics.
BTW, I noticed your long sabbatical. Welcome back. It's good to have your keen analytical abilities here again.
Thanks from foundit66
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