A storm of the century’: New data reveals why 2018 was such a massive landslide for Democrats — and bodes even better for 2020

Apr 2019
175
30
cleveland ohio
#1
A storm of the century’: New data reveals why 2018 was such a massive landslide for Democrats — and bodes even better for 2020

Democrats succeeded in fueling the hoped-for “blue wave” in 2018, flipping control of the House of Representatives and securing a decisive majority of 38 seats. And new data analyzed by…

Democrats succeeded in fueling the hoped-for “blue wave” in 2018, flipping control of the House of Representatives and securing a decisive majority of 38 seats. And new data analyzed by Michael McDonald, who studies elections as a professor at the University of Florida, helps reveal why Democrats were able to win so big.

The Census data shows that in 2018, the share of the voting population that was non-Hispanic white dropped compared to 2016:

I get anxious and then depressed and think, what if the worst happens , but what if the best happens ,maybe we just need to think positively

Michael McDonald@ElectProject



The 2018 CPS Voting and Registration summary tables are now up. Here is a stunner. The non-Hispanic White share of the electorate (people who voted) declined to 2016 to 2018 from 73.4% to 72.8% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html …

Since white voters disproportionately vote Republican, and people of color are more likely to vote Democratic, this shift strengthens the Democrats’ chances.
But as McDonald noted, and as the chart above showed, this is not a typical pattern for a midterm election.


“Usually, the midterm electorate becomes a shade whiter than the last presidential. Not true in 2018 compared to 2016,” he explained. “The 2018 election saw the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914, so I expected the midterm electorate to more demographically like a presidential, but I did not expect to see the non-Hispanic White share of the electorate actually drop from 2016.”


This shift could be partially explained by the fact that in 2016, black voter turnout was down compared to 2012. This is consistent with the graph above showing that, even though the overall non-Hispanic white portion of the electorate shrank from 2012 to 2016, the decline was much smaller than it had been in recent cycles.


Another key demographic that represented a large share of the electorate in 2018, giving Democrats a boost, is the younger cohort:


View image on Twitter


Michael McDonald@ElectProject


Replying to @ElectProject

Youth turnout was up from 2014. As a share of the electorate, 18-24 year olds were 7.1% of the 2018 electorate compared with 5.1% in 2014, a 2 point increase

77

10:42 AM - Apr 23, 2019
What does this all mean for 2020?” said McDonald. “We are likely in for a storm of the century, with turnout levels not seen for a presidential election in the past 100 years. It is likely persons of color and younger people will participate in 2020 at unprecedented levels”
god oh god please let it be and i will never doubt you again

‘A storm of the century’: New data reveals why 2018 was such a massive landslide for Democrats — and bodes even better for 2020 – Alternet.org
 
Mar 2019
2,574
584
Texas
#2
It should be noted that trancy nancy is not up for reelection until 2022.

Special kinds of fools will let her leed them into becoming political cucks to trump.

Americans will not vote for weak minded individuals that play follow the leader.

Whoever wants Americas support will have to prove to be a fighter and not willing to let time attempt to work things out.
 
Feb 2019
1,809
431
here and there
#3
It should be noted that trancy nancy is not up for reelection until 2022.

Special kinds of fools will let her leed them into becoming political cucks to trump.

Americans will not vote for weak minded individuals that play follow the leader.

Whoever wants Americas support will have to prove to be a fighter and not willing to let time attempt to work things out.
Yep, this is who will replace Nancy in 2022.

 
Likes: Sabcat
Nov 2012
41,006
11,805
Lebanon, TN
#4
A storm of the century’: New data reveals why 2018 was such a massive landslide for Democrats — and bodes even better for 2020

Democrats succeeded in fueling the hoped-for “blue wave” in 2018, flipping control of the House of Representatives and securing a decisive majority of 38 seats. And new data analyzed by…

Democrats succeeded in fueling the hoped-for “blue wave” in 2018, flipping control of the House of Representatives and securing a decisive majority of 38 seats. And new data analyzed by Michael McDonald, who studies elections as a professor at the University of Florida, helps reveal why Democrats were able to win so big.

The Census data shows that in 2018, the share of the voting population that was non-Hispanic white dropped compared to 2016:

I get anxious and then depressed and think, what if the worst happens , but what if the best happens ,maybe we just need to think positively

Michael McDonald@ElectProject


The 2018 CPS Voting and Registration summary tables are now up. Here is a stunner. The non-Hispanic White share of the electorate (people who voted) declined to 2016 to 2018 from 73.4% to 72.8% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html …

Since white voters disproportionately vote Republican, and people of color are more likely to vote Democratic, this shift strengthens the Democrats’ chances.
But as McDonald noted, and as the chart above showed, this is not a typical pattern for a midterm election.


“Usually, the midterm electorate becomes a shade whiter than the last presidential. Not true in 2018 compared to 2016,” he explained. “The 2018 election saw the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914, so I expected the midterm electorate to more demographically like a presidential, but I did not expect to see the non-Hispanic White share of the electorate actually drop from 2016.”


This shift could be partially explained by the fact that in 2016, black voter turnout was down compared to 2012. This is consistent with the graph above showing that, even though the overall non-Hispanic white portion of the electorate shrank from 2012 to 2016, the decline was much smaller than it had been in recent cycles.


Another key demographic that represented a large share of the electorate in 2018, giving Democrats a boost, is the younger cohort:


View image on Twitter


Michael McDonald@ElectProject

Replying to @ElectProject

Youth turnout was up from 2014. As a share of the electorate, 18-24 year olds were 7.1% of the 2018 electorate compared with 5.1% in 2014, a 2 point increase
77
10:42 AM - Apr 23, 2019
What does this all mean for 2020?” said McDonald. “We are likely in for a storm of the century, with turnout levels not seen for a presidential election in the past 100 years. It is likely persons of color and younger people will participate in 2020 at unprecedented levels”
god oh god please let it be and i will never doubt you again

‘A storm of the century’: New data reveals why 2018 was such a massive landslide for Democrats — and bodes even better for 2020 – Alternet.org

Landslide for Democrats? ROFLMBO..

The Seats gained by Democrats in the legislature was below the average of 45 (They only picked up 39).

Remember 2010 GOP picked up 62
 
Likes: Sabcat
Nov 2012
10,926
9,124
nirvana
#5
It should be noted that trancy nancy is not up for reelection until 2022.

Special kinds of fools will let her leed them into becoming political cucks to trump.

Americans will not vote for weak minded individuals that play follow the leader.

Whoever wants Americas support will have to prove to be a fighter and not willing to let time attempt to work things out.
Pelosi is Speaker of the House. All 435 House seats are up every two years.

But the OP is correct. Millennials are now the largest voting bloc, and Generation Z, will be making their presence felt in 2020. And they embrace socialism. They hate guns. And they dont like religious zealots.

Just to give my white, conservative bretheren an insight as to where the country is headed.

What to watch for is when Democrats win back the Senate. After that, it is the beginning of the end. A whole new generation that was born not knowing life without a smartphone will now be running the world. Which means higher taxes for rich people, green energy everything, and a renewal of the New Deal, in a very big way.
 
Likes: leekohler2
Mar 2019
2,574
584
Texas
#6
Pelosi is Speaker of the House. All 435 House seats are up every two years.

But the OP is correct. Millennials are now the largest voting bloc, and Generation Z, will be making their presence felt in 2020. And they embrace socialism. They hate guns. And they dont like religious zealots.

Just to give my white, conservative bretheren an insight as to where the country is headed.

What to watch for is when Democrats win back the Senate. After that, it is the beginning of the end. A whole new generation that was born not knowing life without a smartphone will now be running the world. Which means higher taxes for rich people, green energy everything, and a renewal of the New Deal, in a very big way.
Her speaker position is good till 2022 from what i read.

They will certainly try to do what you said....
 
Dec 2013
33,811
19,360
Beware of watermelons
#7
Pelosi is Speaker of the House. All 435 House seats are up every two years.

But the OP is correct. Millennials are now the largest voting bloc, and Generation Z, will be making their presence felt in 2020. And they embrace socialism. They hate guns. And they dont like religious zealots.

Just to give my white, conservative bretheren an insight as to where the country is headed.

What to watch for is when Democrats win back the Senate. After that, it is the beginning of the end. A whole new generation that was born not knowing life without a smartphone will now be running the world. Which means higher taxes for rich people, green energy everything, and a renewal of the New Deal, in a very big way.

Keep believing what the legacy media tells you.... two legs bad and all. Don't forget to placate yourself to the mob because muh white guilt



20190413_113225.png
 
Jul 2015
5,232
2,298
chicago
#8
It wasn't a landslide at all. It went exactly as I expected. The Dems made big gains in the House and lost seats in the Senate. How is that a landslide? Its not. The party who does not have the President sitting in office always loses seats in the legislation in the off election. No surprise. Trump will have big coat tails in 2020.
 
Likes: Sabcat
Nov 2005
8,975
3,451
California
#9