Almost No One Is Falsely Accused of Rape

Sep 2018
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#1
Almost No One Is Falsely Accused of Rape
Much mention has been made recently (mostly by men) of false rape accusations, and how frequently they occur. During Brett Kavanaugh’s testimony last week, several senators apologized for the damage supposedly inflicted by these claims (which, by affirming their belief in Kavanaugh’s denials, they implied were false) on Kavanaugh’s life and reputation. In an editorial for the New York Times, opinion columnist Bret Stephens, after misinterpreting a statistic regarding the prevalence of false rape allegations, wrote: “Falsely accusing a person of sexual assault is nearly as despicable as sexual assault itself. It inflicts psychic, familial, reputational and professional harms that can last a lifetime. This is nothing to sneer at.”

But how common are false rape allegations, really? What constitutes “false?” And what evidence is there of the “psychic, familial, reputational and professional harm” suffered by those people on the other end of those accusations? The Cut spoke to Joanne Belknap, a sociologist, criminologist, and professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, and to Sandra Newman, a novelist with extensive research expertise in false rape allegations.

How common are false allegations of rape or sexual assault?

One commonly cited figure holds that 5 percent of rape allegations are found to be false, but that figure paints a very incomplete picture, says Belknap. Typically, this figure comes from studies done on college students, an estimated 95 percent of whom do not report their assaults to police. Overall, an estimated 8 to 10 percent of women are thought to report their rapes to the police, which means that — at the very highest — we can infer that 90 percent of rapes go unreported, says Belknap. Obviously, only those rapes that are reported in the first place can be considered falsely reported, so that 5 percent figure only applies to 10 percent (at most) of rapes that occur. This puts the actual false allegation figure closer to 0.005 percent (i.e., five percent of ten percent), says Belknap.

Why might a rape allegation be deemed false?

Though “false accusation” is often used synonymously with “made-up accusation,” there are many factors that might result in an allegation being deemed “false.” One is that the woman who initially made the accusation chooses to recant it — which doesn’t necessarily mean that she was lying. “If you don’t want to go through a police investigation, for any reason — and there are many many reasons why you might not want to, it’s really traumatizing — then the easiest and quickest way to get out of it is to recant and say you were lying,” says Newman.

How do false rape report rates compare to false reports of other crimes?

In his column, Stephens shared a misrepresented statistic, stating that false rape allegations are “at least five times as common as false accusations of other types of crime.” However, even the abstract from the very study he links to presents a more complicated figure — the authors write that a 5 percent false-report figure (which, again, is a misleading figure to begin with) is “at least five times higher than for most other offence types.” Most, but not all, as Stephens implies.

Some of them must, given what we know about the percentage of men who openly admit to sexual assault. “We know a lot of men are guilty of rape,” says Newman, referencing studies that cite a range between 6 percent and 38 percent of men who have admitted to sexually coercive behavior. “And a lot more men than that have committed something that would look really bad if it ever came out: they’ve groped someone at a party, or they’ve done one of those things you don’t want to represent them for the rest of their life.”

Some of them must, given what we know about the percentage of men who openly admit to sexual assault. “We know a lot of men are guilty of rape,” says Newman, referencing studies that cite a range between 6 percent and 38 percent of men who have admitted to sexually coercive behavior. “And a lot more men than that have committed something that would look really bad if it ever came out: they’ve groped someone at a party, or they’ve done one of those things you don’t want to represent them for the rest of their life.”


Describing a conversation with a colleague of hers, Belknap points out one last factor that makes false rape allegations so unlikely, and so uncommon. “A faculty member on campus who is also a rape survivor said to me years ago, ‘I never felt like the administrators didn’t believe me. I just felt like they didn’t care.’”

Almost No One Is Falsely Accused of Rape
 
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Sep 2018
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#3
Bullshit

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12 Women Who Lied About Being Raped And Why They Did It
Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position. It is a kind of fallacy of selective attention, the most common example of which is the confirmation bias.[1][2] Cherry picking may be committed intentionally or unintentionally. This fallacy is a major problem in public debate.[3]
The term is based on the perceived process of harvesting fruit, such as cherries. The picker would be expected to only select the ripest and healthiest fruits. An observer who only sees the selected fruit may thus wrongly conclude that most, or even all, of the tree's fruit is in a likewise good condition. This can also give a false impression of the quality of the fruit (since it is only a sample and is not a representative sample).
Cherry picking has a negative connotation as the practice neglects, overlooks or directly suppresses evidence that could lead to a complete picture.
A concept sometimes confused with cherry picking is the idea of gathering only the fruit that is easy to harvest, while ignoring other fruit that is higher up on the tree and thus more difficult to obtain (see low-hanging fruit).
Cherry picking can be found in many logical fallacies. For example, the "fallacy of anecdotal evidence" tends to overlook large amounts of data in favor of that known personally, "selective use of evidence" rejects material unfavorable to an argument, while a false dichotomy picks only two options when more are available. Cherry picking can refer to the selection of data or data sets so a study or survey will give desired, predictable results which may be misleading or even completely contrary to reality.[4]
 
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#4
Bullshit

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12 Women Who Lied About Being Raped And Why They Did It

Cherry-picking is often used in science denial such as climate change denial. For example with deliberately cherry picking appropriate time periods, here 1998-2012, an artificial "pause" can be created, even when there is an ongoing warming trend.[5]
 
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Sep 2018
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#5
Bullshit

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12 Women Who Lied About Being Raped And Why They Did It
To put that data into perspective, Newman consulted data on wrongful murder convictions. “It seems to be extremely rare for anyone to be wrongfully convicted as a result of a false accusation of rape,” she says. “I was only able to find 52 cases in 25 years where a conviction was later overturned after a wrongful conviction based on false rape allegations. In the same period, there were 790 cases where people were found to be wrongfully convicted of murder.” For what it’s worth, 790 divided by 52 is 15.2, meaning that by Newman’s data, you were 15 times likelier in that 25-year period to be wrongfully convicted of murder than of rape. And, let’s keep in mind, rape allegations resulting in convictions are already vanishingly rare: Newman cites a study that found that, of 216 assault complaints classified as false, only six led to arrest, and only two led to actual charges. (And even then, they were eventually deemed false.)
 
Sep 2018
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cleveland ohio
#6
Bullshit

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Lawrence McKinney, a member at my daughter's Church

I did a quick search

25 Wrongly-Convicted Felons Exonerated By New Forensic Evidence »

12 Women Who Lied About Being Raped And Why They Did It
by Newman’s data, you were 15 times likelier in that 25-year period to be wrongfully convicted of murder than of rape. And, let’s keep in mind, rape allegations resulting in convictions are already vanishingly rare: Newman cites a study that found that, of 216 assault complaints classified as false, only six led to arrest, and only two led to actual charges. (And even then, they were eventually deemed false.)
 
Sep 2018
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375
cleveland ohio
#7
Bullshit

Duke Team
UVA Fraternity
Lawrence McKinney, a member at my daughter's Church

I did a quick search

25 Wrongly-Convicted Felons Exonerated By New Forensic Evidence »

12 Women Who Lied About Being Raped And Why They Did It
by Newman’s data, you were 15 times likelier in that 25-year period to be wrongfully convicted of murder than of rape. And, let’s keep in mind, rape allegations resulting in convictions are already vanishingly rare: Newman cites a study that found that, of 216 assault complaints classified as false, only six led to arrest, and only two led to actual charges. (And even then, they were eventually deemed false.)
 
Sep 2018
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375
cleveland ohio
#10
Bullshit

Duke Team
UVA Fraternity
Lawrence McKinney, a member at my daughter's Church

I did a quick search

25 Wrongly-Convicted Felons Exonerated By New Forensic Evidence »

12 Women Who Lied About Being Raped And Why They Did It
never do a quick search.. you prove yourself a fool every time
Anecdotal evidence is evidence from anecdotes, i.e., evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony. When compared to other types of evidence, anecdotal evidence is generally regarded as limited in value due to a number of potential weaknesses, but may be considered within the scope of scientific method as some anecdotal evidence can be both empirical and verifiable, e.g. in the use of case studies in medicine. Other anecdotal evidence, however, does not qualify as scientific evidence, because its nature prevents it from being investigated by the scientific method.
Where only one or a few anecdotes are presented, there is a larger chance that they may be unreliable due to cherry-picked or otherwise non-representative samples of typical cases.[1][2] Similarly, psychologists have found that due to cognitive bias people are more likely to remember notable or unusual examples rather than typical examples.[3] Thus, even when accurate, anecdotal evidence is not necessarily representative of a typical experience. Accurate determination of whether an anecdote is typical requires statistical evidence.[4] Misuse of anecdotal evidence is an informal fallacy and is sometimes referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc.) which places undue weight on experiences of close peers which may not be typical. Compare with hasty generalization.
The term is sometimes used in a legal context to describe certain kinds of testimony which are uncorroborated by objective, independent evidence such as notarized documentation, photographs, audio-visual recordings, etc.