An "educated guess" of Hong Kong's fate

Jun 2013
I like to use the "Psycho" analogy to depict the malicious intent of Donald Trump and Peter Navarro in the so-called trade war. Similarly, here I use the "burning village" analogy to give my "educated guess" of Hong Kong's fate.

In a remote village, some disgruntled villagers were running amok to set fire to houses in their demand to the Landlord to let them choose their own village chief.

The final outcome could be one of the following scenarios:

(a) The Landlord could have sent his firemen earlier to extinguish the fire. However, it would provoke a big outcry from the other landlords that the Landlord had broken his contract with the villagers not to send his men into the village within a specific time period.

(b) If those disgruntled villagers were dead sure of the Landlord’s resolve not to yield to coercion, they might help to extinguish the fire instead of committing arson. In this case, it was not too late to save the village. All's well that ends well.

(c) The Landlord might send his firemen to the village if he grew impatient with the nonsense, "Enough is enough! It’s time to teach those idiots a good lesson!" Then there would still be a big outcry from the other landlords over the breach of contract between the Landlord and the villagers. Moreover, many household items like mattresses, pillows, blankets, clothes, books, food, furniture, televisions, radios, electrical appliances, etc would be damaged by water from the firemen's hoses.

(d) Lastly, the Landlord might think: "If I try to appease the idiots in one village, the consequences would be disastrous because naïve people from the other villages may be tempted to follow suit. It seems okay if I simply do nothing and let the whole village reduce to ashes. As I am the landlord of a thousand villages, I can afford to sacrifice one village to teach those idiots an unforgettable lesson. In the end, it is they who will suffer from their stupid actions.

As stated in Galatians 6:7 of the New Testament:

'Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.'

Those idiots will reap what they sow if they think they can intimidate me into accepting their demand.

If that is the basic nature of God's Justice, it is also the basic nature of my justice. It is certainly my best option at the moment. Ha! Ha! Ha!"
May 2018
China will absorb Hong Kong and it'll become just another huge Chinese city without the semi-autonomy they've enjoyed since the Brits pulled out.
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Marcus Livius

Former Staff
Sep 2017
Hong Kong is not a remote village, so the analogy is rather silly. Over two thirds of funds raised in Hong Kong goes to Chinese Mainland, and more 60% of direct foreign investments go through Hong Kong. At least 15,000 multinational companies are headquartered in Hong Kong. China will be killing a capital market larger than the FTSE.

Hong Kong and China does not share a common currency, national language - spoken or written, or political goals. They always had an independence movement since Britain ceded Hong Kong - they call the upcoming reunification "The 2047 Problem" - a movement that has picked up a lot of steam since protests. The people have no wish to be part of China, 51% percent of 18-31yo's polled said they would consider leaving Hong Kong. Many of the older people were repatriated from countries such as US, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand, etc after the panic of 1997 settled down, and hold legal status so mainland China may be looking at a huge exodus on top of a financial crises if she does not play it carefully. Not to mention kissing off the "One China" dream.

There will probably never be another Tiananmen Square Massacre like action from the CCP. That atrocity would never have happened if there were the cellphone and internet technologies that we today existed then. Even then, there were military officers that refused to move against the students, and the units that were finally sent in to do the deed were handpicked minorities. Information of TSM is still being blacked out in China, and I spoken to people for China that they never heard of it until they finally came here - even relatives and friend here would not tell them in any communications out of fear of placing them in danger of being dealt with by the CCP.