Flipping the Senate 2020 - Is it possible?

Dec 2015
17,343
16,331
Arizona
#22
McConnell will probably not go down. Arizona is a real good chance of a flip. Colorado and Maine the same. Conryn, not a chance of getting beat
Recent polls for McConnell are not looking good: 36% approval rate.
So the case for Amy McGrath is that she is a talented political figure, will have a well-funded campaign and that Kentuckians are perhaps tired of McConnell.
Arizona's race will be really interesting. It's going to be hard for McSalley (R--appointed) to beat Mark Kelly-- the husband of Gabby Giffords and astronaut extraordinaire.
It's an uphill battle for Democrats for sure.
 
Jul 2019
2,647
1,425
Georgia
#23
Johnny Isakson is resigning at the end of the year. He was not up for reelection in 2020. Health issues.

I like Isakson as a person, he's one of my dad's friends, and we campaigned for him for years. Of course I don't like the way he votes most of the time.

wishing him the best, and maybe Georgia can get someone blue up in that seat.

Abrams will not seek the position? Maybe Yates? (please please please go Dawgs)

 
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Dec 2018
2,368
1,649
Wisconsin
#24
I love following this stuff so here's my take:

- Can Ds flip the Senate? Yes. Will they? No, but they'll probably close the gap with a few opportune states
- Colorado to flip D. R Cory Gardner is the most likely to be ousted. The state is leaning more and more blue and Hickenlooper has double digit leads on his D primary opponents, even before he officially announced.
- Arizona to flip D. R Martha McSally actually lost her last Senate race, but took this seat after John McCain passed. She's now going up again Mark Kelly, the famous astronaught and husband of popular former congresswoman Gabby Gifford. McSally is likely on the way out.
- Maine to flip D. R Susan Collins approval rating is second lowest by her own constituents, only behind Mitch McConnell's in KY. Her Maine counterpart Angus King (independents who caucuses with the Ds) has the HIGHEST favorability in the Senate. It's unsure who her opponent will be, but she's in for a tough challenge.
- Alabama to flip R. Unless somehow Roy Moore wins the R primary, I can't see a scenario where D Doug Jones wins again.
- The rest of the states probably stay the same. I actually think the resignation of GA R Johnny Isakson makes it more likely R's hold senate seats. In a presidental election year with both senate seats on the line, I can't see Ds taking it though it would be a MASSIVE swing.

If this comes to fruition, that means the Ds net 2 seats bring them to 49 seats.
 
Dec 2018
2,368
1,649
Wisconsin
#25
Johnny Isakson is resigning at the end of the year. He was not up for reelection in 2020. Health issues.

I like Isakson as a person, he's one of my dad's friends, and we campaigned for him for years. Of course I don't like the way he votes most of the time.

wishing him the best, and maybe Georgia can get someone blue up in that seat.

Abrams will not seek the position? Maybe Yates? (please please please go Dawgs)

While I don't think she'll go for it, I expect Ds nationally and in GA to make a hard pitch to Yates.
 
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Jul 2019
2,647
1,425
Georgia
#26
I love following this stuff so here's my take:

- Can Ds flip the Senate? Yes. Will they? No, but they'll probably close the gap with a few opportune states
- Colorado to flip D. R Cory Gardner is the most likely to be ousted. The state is leaning more and more blue and Hickenlooper has double digit leads on his D primary opponents, even before he officially announced.
- Arizona to flip D. R Martha McSally actually lost her last Senate race, but took this seat after John McCain passed. She's now going up again Mark Kelly, the famous astronaught and husband of popular former congresswoman Gabby Gifford. McSally is likely on the way out.
- Maine to flip D. R Susan Collins approval rating is second lowest by her own constituents, only behind Mitch McConnell's in KY. Her Maine counterpart Angus King (independents who caucuses with the Ds) has the HIGHEST favorability in the Senate. It's unsure who her opponent will be, but she's in for a tough challenge.
- Alabama to flip R. Unless somehow Roy Moore wins the R primary, I can't see a scenario where D Doug Jones wins again.
- The rest of the states probably stay the same. I actually think the resignation of GA R Johnny Isakson makes it more likely R's hold senate seats. In a presidental election year with both senate seats on the line, I can't see Ds taking it though it would be a MASSIVE swing.

If this comes to fruition, that means the Ds net 2 seats bring them to 49 seats.
I agree with all of this.

With Isakson's resignation, Georgia is very much in play, with both the Senate and Presidential election now.

If you look at the results of the last governor's election, we can be purple when motivated, and now there's going to be lots of motivation in 2020.

I guess it depends on who's running. I wonder if Brine will appoint a hard righty-tighty to finish Isakson's term.

I'd go door to door for Yates, no doubt about it.
 
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Dec 2018
2,368
1,649
Wisconsin
#27
I agree with all of this.

With Isakson's resignation, Georgia is very much in play, with both the Senate and Presidential election now.

If you look at the results of the last governor's election, we can be purple when motivated, and now there's going to be lots of motivation in 2020.

I guess it depends on who's running. I wonder if Brine will appoint a hard righty-tighty to finish Isakson's term.

I'd go door to door for Yates, no doubt about it.
I disagree. With one senate seat on the line I would have said it's a lean red. With two seats on the line I think it's a likely red. The difference between the close governor vote in 2018 and the race in 2020 is the later will be a presidential election which produces a higher turnout. If an R won in a GA offelection by 1.5% points, I anticipate that margin will be HIGHER during a presidential election.

Ds will have to pull out a REALLY strong candidate to take one but I can't see a scenario where the parties split the two seats.
 
Jul 2019
2,647
1,425
Georgia
#28
I disagree. With one senate seat on the line I would have said it's a lean red. With two seats on the line I think it's a likely red. The difference between the close governor vote in 2018 and the race in 2020 is the later will be a presidential election which produces a higher turnout. If an R won in a GA offelection by 1.5% points, I anticipate that margin will be HIGHER during a presidential election.

Ds will have to pull out a REALLY strong candidate to take one but I can't see a scenario where the parties split the two seats.
we'll see

it all depends on who's running. Perdue is pretty hateable, so a strong D candidate against him would be great.

we're still pretty motivated from the Governor's race (which a lot of D's and AA's feel was stolen, and rightfully so), so hopefully those strong numbers will show up again in 2020

I live here though and I do see the trumpism shining through people on a daily basis, so who knows.
 
Dec 2015
17,343
16,331
Arizona
#29
A lot can happen in a couple of months. Other Senators can retire. Candidates can change their minds about running.
Collins and McConnell are very unpopular right now.
 
Apr 2013
38,317
26,312
La La Land North
#30
I really think that a lot of the GOPers that have announced they will not run in 2020 are a result of the fact that they can't stomach the Dotard either.
 
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