House and Senate Impeachment Prediction

Dec 2018
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2,458
Wisconsin
Feel free to chime in with what you think will happen.

I think the House will impeach with every democrat voting to impeach, along with a handful of republicans. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 240 votes.

I think the Senate will not vote to convict, but I think it'll be closer than people think. Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham want to take back power from the president and they need to fire a warning shot. They won't vote to impeach, but they'll work strategically with Senate Rs to figure out who are the safer picks to vote in favor. Maybe 10 to 15 Rs vote to impeach, but not enough to get the 2/3 majority. They essentially say to Trump, "You can either cut the shit, or we work with Democrats to bring this up again and we rally behind Mike Pence."

On the 23rd day of October, what is your official prediction?