Iran breached a limit on its nuclear fuel stockpile which it was meant to observe for another 11 years under Obama-era nuclear deal

imaginethat

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Oct 2010
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#11
While that amount of LEU is nowhere near the amount of LEU (and some MEU) Iran had on hand prior to the JCPOA, of which amounted to the material for potentially producing about 12 or more 20 to 30 Kt yield nuclear weapons if enriched to weapons grade, Iran has to my understanding installed a series of IR6 centrifuges which could potentially process said amount of material at a far greater rate-and resultingly much less time-than it took Iran to process that said material years ago using less advanced centrifuges, all while taking up a much a smaller footprint to do so. And I won't be surprised at all if Iran starts feeding material into that cascade of installed IR6's in the coming weeks or months. And, of course, when such systems take up much less space, then they are easier to successfully hide away in some undisclosed bunker somewhere in Iran.

UN atomic watchdog raises questions of Iran's centrifuge use

(Although admittedly, the more centrifuges that are installed of any given advancement of design, the greater rate of enrichment. But, while it took Iran many thousands of older-design centrifuges and some years to produce those 12 or more bombs-worth of LEU and some MEU material in the past, potentially it could take Iran just hundreds of IR6 centrifuges to do the same amount of processing over the same period of time.)
I'm looking for the problem, other than the paranoid, right-wing, US defenders of nuclear-armed Israel, here:

In its first quarterly report since those announcements, however, the Vienna-based IAEA found Iran continued to be in compliance and also said its inspectors had been given unfettered access to Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Timely and proactive cooperation by Iran in providing such access facilitates implementation of the additional protocol and enhances confidence,” the report stated, referring to the procedure detailing safeguards and tools for verification.
The senior diplomat said Iran does have the capacity to quadruple uranium enrichment as it recently threatened, but that inspectors would have to wait until the next report to determine whether they had actually set that increase in motion.
“They have the flexibility, they can increase and they can reduce, and they can do a number of things,” the diplomat said. “The capacity is always there, and we do verify this at a technical level, we are fully monitoring that.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. ended deals allowing Iran to exchange its enriched uranium for unrefined yellowcake uranium with Russia, and to sell its heavy water, which is used as a coolant in nuclear reactors, to Oman. That will also make it difficult, if not impossible, for it to stay within stockpile limits if it increases production of both.
The IAEA said Iran’s heavy water stockpile was 125.2 metric tons (138 U.S. tons) as of May 26, up from 124.8 tons in February but below the 130 ton limit. Its stock of low-enriched uranium was 174.1 kilograms (383.8 pounds) as of May 20, up from 163.8 kilograms in February; the limit is 202.8 kilograms.
It added that Iran had not enriched any uranium above the level allowed by the JCPOA.
“All centrifuges and associated infrastructure in storage have remained under continuous agency monitoring,” the IAEA said.
 
Feb 2007
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USA
#12
I'm looking for the problem, other than the paranoid, right-wing, US defenders of nuclear-armed Israel, here:

In its first quarterly report since those announcements, however, the Vienna-based IAEA found Iran continued to be in compliance and also said its inspectors had been given unfettered access to Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Timely and proactive cooperation by Iran in providing such access facilitates implementation of the additional protocol and enhances confidence,” the report stated, referring to the procedure detailing safeguards and tools for verification.
The senior diplomat said Iran does have the capacity to quadruple uranium enrichment as it recently threatened, but that inspectors would have to wait until the next report to determine whether they had actually set that increase in motion.
“They have the flexibility, they can increase and they can reduce, and they can do a number of things,” the diplomat said. “The capacity is always there, and we do verify this at a technical level, we are fully monitoring that.”
Earlier this month, the U.S. ended deals allowing Iran to exchange its enriched uranium for unrefined yellowcake uranium with Russia, and to sell its heavy water, which is used as a coolant in nuclear reactors, to Oman. That will also make it difficult, if not impossible, for it to stay within stockpile limits if it increases production of both.
The IAEA said Iran’s heavy water stockpile was 125.2 metric tons (138 U.S. tons) as of May 26, up from 124.8 tons in February but below the 130 ton limit. Its stock of low-enriched uranium was 174.1 kilograms (383.8 pounds) as of May 20, up from 163.8 kilograms in February; the limit is 202.8 kilograms.
It added that Iran had not enriched any uranium above the level allowed by the JCPOA.
“All centrifuges and associated infrastructure in storage have remained under continuous agency monitoring,” the IAEA said.
Well, international agreements, whether they are made formal through the UN (like the JCPOA) or outside the UN, are only as strong as the countries involved in said agreements are willing to abide by them. And, quite clearly for all to see including Iran, the US via the Trump Administration is not willing to abide by the terms of JCPOA. And, I have to admit that I think Iran should feel somewhat justified if it does not abide by the terms of that same agreement, in turn.

And, I just mentioned these centrifuge-related details because the facts on the ground aren't exactly the same as they were a few years ago. Instead, it seems that the potential breakout period for Iran now is even less time, from a technical standpoint, than it was just a few years ago...all of which just adds more fuel to the fire, so to speak.

In summary, I could be wrong but I don't see these building to war-like circumstances ending well for either the US or Iran. Each country seemingly keeps escalating the situation with no apparent end in sight. And, I'm quite personally convinced that the Trump Administration really hasn't thought this through in a long-term strategic sense...unless, of course, all out war with Iran is the ultimate goal of the Trump Administration.
 
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imaginethat

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Oct 2010
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#13
Well, international agreements, whether they are made formal through the UN (like the JCPOA) or outside the UN, are only as strong as the countries involved in said agreements are willing to abide by them. And, quite clearly for all to see including Iran, the US via the Trump Administration is not willing to abide by the terms of JCPOA. And, I have to admit that I think Iran should feel somewhat justified if it does not abide by the terms of that same agreement, in turn.

And, I just mentioned these centrifuge-related details because the facts on the ground aren't exactly the same as they were a few years ago. Instead, it seems that the potential breakout period for Iran now is even less time, from a technical standpoint, than it was just a few years ago...all of which just adds more fuel to the fire, so to speak.

In summary, I could be wrong but I don't see these building to war-like circumstances ending well for either the US or Iran. Each country seemingly keeps escalating the situation with no apparent end in sight. And, I'm quite personally convinced that the Trump Administration really hasn't thought this through in a long-term strategic sense...unless, of course, all out war with Iran is the ultimate goal of the Trump Administration.
Here's the core insanity as I see it.

We fought, at a cost of trillions and still counting, Iraq on behalf of Israel. With the smoke still in the air, Israeli leaders began pressuring us to take on Iran.

In the current geopolitical scene, US dependence on ME oil is quite low. However, the Far East and Europe's thirst for ME oil grows. So, who's on the point here, to protect the flow of ME oil to ME oil customers? The good ol' world policeman, the US.

I agree with you. A US-led war with Iran would be disastrous for all involved. Who knows where the price of oil would go if ME oil production facilities suffered significant damage, or what the resulting economic fallout would be? But, here's the kicker.

Obviously, Russia would benefit greatly from higher/much higher oil prices. So, the US would be "fighting for" Russia if a US-led war breaks out in the region.

Can things be any more insane? Probably, but right now I can't see how.
 
Dec 2016
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#14
The limit was 300 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU). To put that into perspective, that's about a quarter of the LEU needed to be refined into highly enriched uranium (HEU) to make ......... one bomb.

But hey, as Sabcat would say, Obama made this deal. Obama bad.

Iran breached a limit on its nuclear fuel stockpile which it was meant
to observe for another 11 years
under Obama-era nuclear deal
Iran has surpassed its limit on enriched uranium stockpile as outlined in the 2015 nuclear deal, breaking a promise it was meant to keep until 2030.​
The country's stockpile of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), enriched to 3.67%, surpassed 300kg as of Monday, a spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told Business Insider in a statement.​
...Breaching the limit is a symbolic defiance of Trump, but will not really put Iran much closer to building a nuclear weapon, The Washington Post's Loveday Morris noted.​
...​
Iran has repeatedly denied intentions to build a nuclear bomb.​
The news comes after the US deployed its most advanced fighter jets, F-22 Raptors, to the Middle East amid increasing military tensions.​
The 3.67%-enriched uranium can be used in power plants but nuclear bombs require more than 90% enriched uranium, Morris said.​
However, a stockpile of 1,050 kg could be further enriched into enough material to build one nuclear bomb, the BBC reported, citing the Arms Control Association.​

More: Iran breached a limit on its nuclear fuel stockpile which it was meant to observe for another 11 years under Obama-era nuclear deal
Worth noting that there are different levels of 'enrichment' here! And what Iran has done so far is not producing weapons-grade uranium isotopes! And it should also be made clear, that Iran would not be exceeding it's enriched uranium supply limits under the JCPoA if it wasn't for the trade embargo that Trump instituted when he tore up the deal and threatened sanctions on anyone who had been buying enriched uranium from Iran.

All Trump has to do is re-institute the JCPOA....abide by the terms of the agreement and problem solved! Instead, he's playing his usual game of alternating threats and carrots that he used successfully (at least for propaganda purposes) with tearing up NAFTA and renegotiating two new trade agreements with Canada and Mexico which are essentially THE SAME AS WHAT WE HAD BEFORE!

Looks like the Iranians don't get what the hell Trump is trying to do...don't trust him...and still expect that Israel is waiting in the wings to play hero in this drama, by launching a bombing campaign on Iran...that they will never be able to finish, but will draw in US forces to try to finish the job.

Trump may be on the brink of success with North Korea simply for doing nothing! And just let the South Korean Government and the North take care of the details/while on the other hand he's created a mess and a potential disaster in Iran because he's getting paid (legal and illegal) by Israelis, Saudis, US Ziocons to tear up an agreement he has feared would remain checked off as an Obama success. All he had to do was NOTHING and pass up the money from Sheldon Adelson and other AIPAC Ziocons, as well as the Saud Family and he'd have one less crisis on his hands......but, that was too much to ask for!
 
Likes: BubbaJones
Mar 2013
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#15
Worth noting that there are different levels of 'enrichment' here! And what Iran has done so far is not producing weapons-grade uranium isotopes! And it should also be made clear, that Iran would not be exceeding it's enriched uranium supply limits under the JCPoA if it wasn't for the trade embargo that Trump instituted when he tore up the deal and threatened sanctions on anyone who had been buying enriched uranium from Iran.

All Trump has to do is re-institute the JCPOA....abide by the terms of the agreement and problem solved! Instead, he's playing his usual game of alternating threats and carrots that he used successfully (at least for propaganda purposes) with tearing up NAFTA and renegotiating two new trade agreements with Canada and Mexico which are essentially THE SAME AS WHAT WE HAD BEFORE!

Looks like the Iranians don't get what the hell Trump is trying to do...don't trust him...and still expect that Israel is waiting in the wings to play hero in this drama, by launching a bombing campaign on Iran...that they will never be able to finish, but will draw in US forces to try to finish the job.

Trump may be on the brink of success with North Korea simply for doing nothing! And just let the South Korean Government and the North take care of the details/while on the other hand he's created a mess and a potential disaster in Iran because he's getting paid (legal and illegal) by Israelis, Saudis, US Ziocons to tear up an agreement he has feared would remain checked off as an Obama success. All he had to do was NOTHING and pass up the money from Sheldon Adelson and other AIPAC Ziocons, as well as the Saud Family and he'd have one less crisis on his hands......but, that was too much to ask for!

I had not considered that Iran was exporting their nuclear materials. I can see where, even unintentionally, they would now have a stock pile.

I assume, like any manufacturing process, there is a certain amount of lead time needed to produce the materials for delivery on a certain date.

I can see where they may have had or anticipated orders when the sanctions hit. They can’t simply switch the machines off and stop production.
 

imaginethat

Forum Staff
Oct 2010
67,692
27,576
Colorado
#16
Worth noting that there are different levels of 'enrichment' here! And what Iran has done so far is not producing weapons-grade uranium isotopes! And it should also be made clear, that Iran would not be exceeding it's enriched uranium supply limits under the JCPoA if it wasn't for the trade embargo that Trump instituted when he tore up the deal and threatened sanctions on anyone who had been buying enriched uranium from Iran.

All Trump has to do is re-institute the JCPOA....abide by the terms of the agreement and problem solved! Instead, he's playing his usual game of alternating threats and carrots that he used successfully (at least for propaganda purposes) with tearing up NAFTA and renegotiating two new trade agreements with Canada and Mexico which are essentially THE SAME AS WHAT WE HAD BEFORE!

Looks like the Iranians don't get what the hell Trump is trying to do...don't trust him...and still expect that Israel is waiting in the wings to play hero in this drama, by launching a bombing campaign on Iran...that they will never be able to finish, but will draw in US forces to try to finish the job.

Trump may be on the brink of success with North Korea simply for doing nothing! And just let the South Korean Government and the North take care of the details/while on the other hand he's created a mess and a potential disaster in Iran because he's getting paid (legal and illegal) by Israelis, Saudis, US Ziocons to tear up an agreement he has feared would remain checked off as an Obama success. All he had to do was NOTHING and pass up the money from Sheldon Adelson and other AIPAC Ziocons, as well as the Saud Family and he'd have one less crisis on his hands......but, that was too much to ask for!
Ziocons, I like that!
 
Dec 2016
5,436
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#19
Ziocons, I like that!
There has to be some handle to distinguish between what appears to be two distinct groups of neoconservativism.

It began in the 60's in the US, when an America First segment of the liberal class who thought the Democratic Party was becoming too anti-war and focused on detente and other deals with global adversaries. Most of them joined the Republican Party....just like the Southern Dem segregationists. So, their primary focus is on American military power and America's interests.

But what of the growing Israeli-focused segment of this group! There have been questions about whether some past strategies....including the destabilization and attempted overthrow of Assad in Syria were of any benefit to the US or is it just what Israel and the Sunni oil states want? By now, a better argument could be made that the US strengthened the same jihadist military groups which have no qualms over attacking US troops and commercial interests across the Middle East, so who was helped.....besides Israel seizing even more Syrian territory and calling the Golan (seized during the 1967 war) territory they will never return to Syria, in violation of the UN protocols they signed when they became a member.

In a strict geopolitical sense, a better argument could be made that Iran would have made a better natural ally than Saudi Arabia...after that Shah thing and Khomeini backlash had cleared away! The drive to destroy Iran, so that Sunni zealots in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates can fulfill a dream of annihilating the Shia minority (who have been a thorn in their notions of Islamic unity), but how does a bloody war to destroy the only Shia power in the Mid-East benefit anyone else? In the coming years, the Israelis may realize they should have stayed out of this as well, instead of picking sides between two adversaries. Remember, it was the Israelis who built up Hamas to destabilize the PLO, and ended their chances of ever having a negotiated peace or make land deals with Palestinians afterwards. Now they can emote about having no negotiating partner on the other side. They left their only option as killing and ethnic cleansing all the territories they want and tell Americans that they likewise have no choice other than supporting Israel's growing aid budgets and military equipment. Therefore, some Neocons are Israel Firsters, while others are looking for some sort of exit strategy before the whole Israel project leaves the US isolated and with increasing military costs to carry.