Italy in lockdown

Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
'Don't believe the numbers you see': Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus

Adriana Belmonte Associate Editor
Yahoo Finance March 13, 2020, 2:35 PM EDT

...

In the U.S. there are over 1,600 confirmed cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 41 deaths. Makary said that the number of cases, though, is likely much higher.

“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”

He added: “I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.”

...

“Our American hospitals have had very little room to take on increased capacity,” Makary said. “Most ICUs function at full capacity or near full capacity. We only have 100,000 ICU beds in the United States. We could see 200,000 new patients that need critical care up to 2 million.”



https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html
:eek:
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update:

~756 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 2,929 cases.
Average rate = ~31.5 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update:

~805 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 3,734 cases.
Average rate = ~33.5 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 

RNG

Forum Staff
Apr 2013
42,230
30,750
La La Land North
Update:

~805 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 3,734 cases.
Average rate = ~33.5 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
The problem is that can we currently differentiate between the spread increasing in rate and the fact that more testing can now be done? I suspect it's both but it would be nice to know.
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update, as of 11:00 PM Eastern Time, 3/16:

~927 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 4,661 cases.
Average rate = ~38.6 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
The problem is that can we currently differentiate between the spread increasing in rate and the fact that more testing can now be done? I suspect it's both but it would be nice to know.
Yeah, such is the nature of reactionary-type testing simply meant to address health issues versus a well-designed study that attempts to examine in great detail the nature of this virus and its outbreak potential. With the US thus far mainly testing people who show symptoms of some kind, and seemingly with a rather small amount of asymptomatic people being tested who have been exposed to people with confirmed cases, it's hard to say what that spread rate-the R0-is for this virus...of which I believe is why there is currently such a wide estimated range for the R0 of this virus. In time, as more asymptomatic people are tested, I think they will be able to narrow that range down. Nevertheless, this virus is still seemingly spreading like a wildfire out of control.
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update, as of 11:00 PM Eastern Time, 3/17:

~1,701 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 6,362 cases.
Average rate = ~70.9 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek: