Italy in lockdown

Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update, as of 11:00 PM Eastern Time, 3/18:

~2,983 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 9,345 cases.
Average rate = ~124.3 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update, as of 11:00 PM Eastern Time, 3/19

~4,905 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 14,250 cases.
Average rate = ~204.3 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update, as of 11:00 PM Eastern Time, 3/20

~5,102 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 19,352 cases.
Average rate = ~212.6 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Update, as of 11:00 PM Eastern Time, 3/21

~7,395 confirmed US cases reported in the last 24 hours, with a total of 26,747 cases.
Average rate = ~308 confirmed US cases reported per hour.

:eek:
 
Nov 2013
3,081
1,473
NM
nobody is blaming trump for "allowing" the virus in the country. that is all in your melon. name any known democrat spewing such nonsense. so, you believe italy and china and japan and south korea are wrong to try and mitigate how many people come down with this apparently easily spread virus we have no vaccine for, just keep ignoring it until it goes away, until almost 70% of the people get it and keep passing it on and get it again, without no vaccine to either immunize or treat this new strain? just how screwed would their economy be if that happened?

what do you think a government should do when the outbreak is spiraling out of control?
TMK, that's part of how pandemics peter out. If someone contracts novel COVID-19 & recovers, that should provide some protection from further infection from that strain of the disease (that's a possible treatment - harvesting virus antibodies from people who have recovered from the virus, & infusing plasma [with the antibodies] into infected patients). With vigorous supportive measures & natural partial immunity (from having fought off the virus before), the pool of vulnerable people shrinks. Once the virus can't perpetuate itself by chain reaction (so to speak), it will go dormant.

The nightmare would be if COVID-19 mutates sufficiently that partial immunity (from a previous infection) doesn't provide sufficient protection. Then a second (& possibly subsequent infections) might be possible.
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
Please note the log scale for the number of cases.
Already noted...being that I created that chart in a spreadsheet I've developed and have been updating regularly.

And, just today I've roughly projected those case number and death number curves into the future. And those projections show one million cases by the end of the first week in April and one million deaths sometime in the second week in May. Assuming, of course, those curves don't change from their current trajectories before those time periods.

:eek:
 

RNG

Forum Staff
Apr 2013
42,230
30,750
La La Land North
Already noted...being that I created that chart in a spreadsheet I've developed and have been updating regularly.

And, just today I've roughly projected those case number and death number curves into the future. And those projections show one million cases by the end of the first week in April and one million deaths sometime in the second week in May. Assuming, of course, those curves don't change from their current trajectories before those time periods.

:eek:
That comment wasn't aimed at you obviously, but I wanted to emphasise it for the usual suspects.
 
Feb 2007
6,445
4,195
USA
That comment wasn't aimed at you obviously, but I wanted to emphasise it for the usual suspects.
Oh, OK.

Anyways, the confirmed cases and deaths trends in the US still seem rather serious going forward, with no apparent leveling off. The slopes of the two curves are dissimilar, perhaps demonstrating an increasing amount of testing being done without a similar amount of increase in the amount of deaths. Of course, the big unknown is how many people have been exposed and currently carry or even formerly carried the virus yet haven't had symptoms significant enough to lead to testing confirming their cases.