My early take on 2020 candidates

Dec 2018
1,671
1,042
Wisconsin
#1
Joe Biden, Former VP - He's the early leader in the club because he's associated with the Obama administration. He's likable, he can associate himself with the successes of Obama and he has connections throughout the country. However if Obama comes out and endorses another candidate, or even if Obama doesn't endorse anybody, which is possible, Biden's chances take a BIG hit. He's probably the candidate the Trump administration is most worried about.

Bernie Sanders, Vermont Senator - He has a pretty substantial following and has a good argument to make. Most of the democratic candidates NOW are endorsing initiatives Sanders were pushing for in 2016. He also has the sympothy card since Hillary and the DNC stacked the deck against him. With him being the most progressive candidate though, he has the biggest target. There's also the perception that his time has come and gone. If he wins he'll probably bring out the most votes on the left, but could also stir up energy on the right.

Kamala Harris, California Senator - She's a woman, she's a minority, and she's very well spoken. Two of those things shouldn't matter IMO, but I live in reality. Being a lawyer and having a lot of face time in senate committees, she's got a lot of recognition and should hold her own in primary debates. She's got some baggage in her time as CA AG, but the left will largely overlook it. She'll either sneak her way to become the Dem candidate, or she'll be the number one option for a VP candidate.

Beto O'Rourke, Former Texas Congressman - If the last few elections have taught us anything, it's experience in politics doesn't mean jack. In fact, a lack of experience can mean a lack of ammunition opponents can use against you. In walks Beto. He's young, energetic and comes from a BIG state that is starting to become more and more blue. He's KIND OF a progressive but he doesn't flaunt it since he's coming from Texas. There's a republican opposition group out of Iowa that has targeted only ONE democratic candidate and that's Beto. What does that tell you?

Cory Booker, New Jersey Senator - He's being viewed as Obama light. He's got a big personality, he's incredibly intelligent, but his record is mixed. He's positioned himself as a progressive but one debate with Bernie Sanders and his record will be exposed. While he's a big name, I don't expect him to last that long.

Amy Klobuchar, Minnesota Senator - Like Harris and Booker, she's got a lot of exposure serving on several Senate committees. Coming from the midwest she can certainly relate to swing voters throughout the rust belt. Visually, her campaign announcement in the thick snow might become one of her best campaign tools. And don't overlook the fact that she's pretty funny. It shouldn't matter, but likability is a big factor and that could carry her further than people think.

Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Senator - If Booker is Obama light, Gillibrand is Hillary light. Her voting record is also mixed, voting with republicans often in her early career. She's positioned herself as someone who can work across the aisle but her views have changed and she has grown over the years. Personally, I think that message will fall flat.

John Hickenlooper, Former Colorado Governor - When everyone is fighting to go to the left, Hickenlooper is carving himself out as the moderate in the field. With the economic success Colorado has seen under his watch, Hickenlooper has a great story to tell. Being one of the few governors in the field, he could surprise a few people.

Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Senator - She's not as progressive as Sanders and has more holes in her game, many of them self-inflicted. Her name recognition and her record for fighting for consumers will carry her aways, but there's just too many problems with her to last. I think she'll drop out a lot earlier than people think.

Andrew Yang, Founder of Venture for America - Here's the dark horse to keep an eye on. His non-profit is aimed at providing cheap loans for entrepreneurs and start up companies. That can be sold to the right and the left. He's pushing for some form of universal basic income because he sees how technology and automation are negatively impacting manufacturing and trucking jobs. That cab be sold to the right and the left.
 
May 2018
5,046
3,205
Chicago
#2
Beto seems like the best bet, quite honestly. Not much to criticize, likable and he comes from Texas. The GOP will have a very tough time fighting that. Kamala Harris wields be my second.

Bernie needs to understand his time has passed. He's too divisive and comes across as bitter.
 
Dec 2018
1,671
1,042
Wisconsin
#5
I haven't looked into him yet, but Indianapolis Mayor Peter Buttigeg is getting a lot of pub lately. Did a town hall event last week and came out looking really good. Looks like I need to do some research.
 
Sep 2015
6,808
3,758
Stage Left
#8
i still think its way too early to seriously make sense of this gaggle of candidates. i have a short list of possibles, of course, but i am waiting until they actually start getting to work in Iowa and New Hampshire.

oh, and Beto isnt a guy with no experience, he is a former congressman from El Paso. i personally wish he would have run for the US Senate seat v Cornyn instead of joining this crowded field.

right now i am keeping an eye on Castro, Beto, Harris, Gillenbrand, Warren, Booker, and Gabbard, but that can change quickly as this gets rolling in a couple months.
 
Likes: leekohler2
Apr 2013
36,679
24,920
La La Land North
#9
Beto made the biggest gain in a recent poll I saw on twitter. Surprising (to me) Biden is still leading that poll.
 
Dec 2018
1,671
1,042
Wisconsin
#10
Beto made the biggest gain in a recent poll I saw on twitter. Surprising (to me) Biden is still leading that poll.
It KINDA makes sense about Biden. I would argue voters care about two things more than anything else in a presidential candidate: Are the qualified for the job and do they have name recognition. The second factor shouldn't be important, but it is. And when it comes to the candidates who are most experienced for the job and have the biggest name recognition, Biden actually is number one in both categories.

I'm not saying he should or would win the nomination, but Biden being up this early isn't terribly surprising for me.

I could be wrong