Perspective: Can anyone agree these numbers are very much alike?

imaginethat

Forum Staff
Oct 2010
71,522
32,072
Colorado
Batch one #1

51,500,000 divided by 126 = .000244%
126 divided by 9137 = 1.4%


Batch #2

331,000,000 divided by 737 = .000222%
737 divided by 54,453 = 1.4%
With the numbers I posted:

931 (deaths) ÷ 65,652 (diagnosed cases) = 1.42 %

For perspective, that's 14 times deadlier than the average rate for the flu.
 
Feb 2020
817
948
dfw, texas
Another thing I wonder about. Canada's current population is 37 million, the US is 331 million as you say. So for rough comparison I always multiply a Canadian stat by 10 to get a rough comparison. And this worked comparing CV cases and deaths in the early couple of months.

But about 3 weeks ago they started to diverge. As of this morning, Canada has 3,409 cases and 36 deaths. The US has 53,740 cases and 706 deaths. These are way off the factor of 10.

And Canada was way late to restricting foreigners into the country. We didn't even ban flights from China till recently.

The only difference I can see is that we have done way more testing per capita just as S. Korea has done way more testing per capita.

Any other ideas?
Canada's lethal rate is 1%. US has a lethal rate of 1.3%. not much difference. as far as the totals, the US has huge population centers that were heavily trafficked by international travelers before any travel bans were established, all over the country, and many more densely populated areas than Canada in general...Canada was kinda practicing self-isolation during these cold winter months all by itself in most of Canada. I would expect that is the major difference.
 
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Feb 2020
817
948
dfw, texas
With the numbers I posted:

931 (deaths) ÷ 65,652 (diagnosed cases) = 1.42 %

For perspective, that's 14 times deadlier than the average rate for the flu.
true, for the US and Canada...but as far as the world goes so far?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 468,644 Cases and 21,191 ...
www.worldometers.info › coronavirus



Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, and death toll by country due to the COVID 19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. ... Currently Infected Patients .


0.4% worldwide lethal rate, 4 times the flu rate, more or less. I believe the US's rate is higher because we have almost no idea of how many people have it or have had it and recovered.

not to take any death lightly, but 4 people out of a thousand dying from a disease they contract, compared to 1 person out of a thousand dying from a disease they contract, is not really all that much.
 
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Dec 2018
6,634
1,915
New England
With the numbers I posted:

931 (deaths) ÷ 65,652 (diagnosed cases) = 1.42 %

For perspective, that's 14 times deadlier than the average rate for the flu.
Sorry, this one is behind a paywall ...


... but makes the argument the commonly cited fatality rates for COVID-19 are inflated because the number of cases is under reported. It puts the death rate at under 1%.

Time will tell.
 
Sep 2015
7,410
4,758
Stage Left
I know, but the death rate in Korea is still rising as well. I'm not trying to give a false narrative, just trying to keep a sensible perspective.
I'm one of those that reacts After the fact. Usually calm and rational til I've dealt with whatever needs dealing with. Then I sometimes get emotional. Worked well with raising my girls. :neutral: lol :upsidedown:
yeah same, tho sometimes i have to have a quick cry first and then get it done lol
 
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imaginethat

Forum Staff
Oct 2010
71,522
32,072
Colorado
true, for the US and Canada...but as far as the world goes so far?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 468,644 Cases and 21,191 ...
www.worldometers.info › coronavirus



Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, and death toll by country due to the COVID 19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. ... Currently Infected Patients .


0.4% worldwide lethal rate, 4 times the flu rate, more or less. I believe the US's rate is higher because we have almost no idea of how many people have it or have had it and recovered.

not to take any death lightly, but 4 people out of a thousand dying from a disease they contract, compared to 1 person out of a thousand dying from a disease they contract, is not really all that much.
I bounce back and forth between CV is a new virus, no one has any natural immunity to it, and it's far better to err on the side of caution, and, all the death rate statistics are suspect because we have no idea of the total number of cases which could be 10, 100, or 1,000 times greater than the known cases.

If the latter is true, the response so far has been disproportionate to the actual danger.

CDC estimates that the 2018–2019 flu season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths.... (Table 1).

The 2017-2018 US flu season had an estimated 45 million case, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).

Worldwide " ...hospitalization and death occur mainly among high risk groups. Worldwide, these annual [flu] epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths."


The death rates for the previous two US flu seasons were 0.1 percent and 0.14 percent respectively. We have no data showing CV is less contagious than the flu, nor that it's less deadly, thus the above flu season death totals could be best case coronavirus scenarios.

Applying the current 0.4 percent worldwide coronavirus death rate to the previous two US flu season total cases yields 142,000 and 180,000 deaths respectively.

Is this a war? Are 142,000-180,000 US deaths reasonable to "save the economy?" For context, the US suffered 420,000 deaths in WWII and less than 60,000 in Vietnam.
 
Sep 2019
2,380
2,661
Louisville, Ky
I bounce back and forth between CV is a new virus, no one has any natural immunity to it, and it's far better to err on the side of caution, and, all the death rate statistics are suspect because we have no idea of the total number of cases which could be 10, 100, or 1,000 times greater than the known cases.

If the latter is true, the response so far has been disproportionate to the actual danger.

CDC estimates that the 2018–2019 flu season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths.... (Table 1).

The 2017-2018 US flu season had an estimated 45 million case, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).

Worldwide " ...hospitalization and death occur mainly among high risk groups. Worldwide, these annual [flu] epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths."


The death rates for the previous two US flu seasons were 0.1 percent and 0.14 percent respectively. We have no data showing CV is less contagious than the flu, nor that it's less deadly, thus the above flu season death totals could be best case coronavirus scenarios.

Applying the current 0.4 percent worldwide coronavirus death rate to the previous two US flu season total cases yields 142,000 and 180,000 deaths respectively.

Is this a war? Are 142,000-180,000 US deaths reasonable to "save the economy?" For context, the US suffered 420,000 deaths in WWII and less than 60,000 in Vietnam.
Turn on MSNBC right now to get perspective....it aint pretty.
 

imaginethat

Forum Staff
Oct 2010
71,522
32,072
Colorado
I mean, let's think.

Why are we freaking the fuck out over CV? Currently there are 69,000 cases and 1,037 deaths. Think, the annual flu outbreaks occur in the US in a population that has been about half vaccinated, and still we get tens of millions of cases and tens of thousands of deaths, but nobody is annually freaking the fuck out.

The tactical plan every flu season:
  • Regular hand washing with proper drying of the hands
  • Good respiratory hygiene – covering mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing, using tissues and disposing of them correctly
  • Early self-isolation of those feeling unwell, feverish and having other symptoms of influenza
  • Avoiding close contact with sick people
  • Avoiding touching one’s eyes, nose or mouth