So Now What?

RNG

Forum Staff
Apr 2013
42,171
30,678
La La Land North
It is purely based on the course of the virus in the USA. If it ends up acting like the flu and fades away in the next month then the market will bounce back immediately.
Except that all the people who have studied pandemics and have knowledge of this and flu-type diseases have ranged time to fade being between 6 and 18 months. And those saying 18 months are only saying that because that is the best guess as to when a vaccine will be available.
 
Jul 2015
6,560
2,621
chicago
Except that all the people who have studied pandemics and have knowledge of this and flu-type diseases have ranged time to fade being between 6 and 18 months. And those saying 18 months are only saying that because that is the best guess as to when a vaccine will be available.
No they are not saying that they are saying they do not know.
 
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Feb 2018
3,153
2,359
Oregon
Even through the 1929 depression, of the companies that didn't go bankrupt, if you could hold on, I think it was 6 years, you still ended up dollars ahead. I hate admitting that Dopey Don might be right about something but the recovery could be relatively fast. It's just that it ain't going to be in 6 months.

That to me, for my personal decisions, is the big question, how long are we going to be in this trough?
Remember the 1929 crash took nearly 3 years to reach bottom, and then the market which dropped from about 390 to about 40 in over 3 years, took another 24 years to get back up to where it was before the crash. By then, in order to account for average inflation rate of 3.5% if it should apply to those 27 years, the market would have to first return to where it was, which as I said took those 24 years, and then it would have to also return a gain of about 123% in order to be worth what it had been worth 27 years ago.

So is it worth it to sit tight and face maybe a couple of decades and then still need to double your money in order to be whole? Not a problem if all you have is a couple of hundred bucks. But how about a nest egg of, say, $200,000?

I took my money out of stocks on March 24th.
 
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Feb 2018
3,153
2,359
Oregon
It is purely based on the course of the virus in the USA. If it ends up acting like the flu and fades away in the next month then the market will bounce back immediately.
You don't know that. You're spewing hope. And you're in all probability wrong because you haven't taken into account the fundamental weaknesses of the stock market at this time.
 
Jul 2015
6,560
2,621
chicago
Are you sure? I have one paying 3.3% and guaranteed to pay 3.3% for the next 5 years. Try that with a CD or a money market fund.
A 401k is not a CD or any articular fixed asset. You pick them based on your age and tolerance. A 401k over its life would tend to earn much more than 3.3% Even with the big loses this past month for the past 5 years I have earned more than 3.3%.
 
Feb 2018
3,153
2,359
Oregon
A 401k is not a CD or any articular fixed asset. You pick them based on your age and tolerance. A 401k over its life would tend to earn much more than 3.3% Even with the big loses this past month for the past 5 years I have earned more than 3.3%.
You need to track back in the conversation to straighten out your reply and make it apply to the subject, because as it is you are interrupting a conversation about apples to talk about oranges.

BTW, since you're trying to "educate" me on investing, since March 24, 2020 I have a 63% return on my money. How have you done?
 
Feb 2018
3,153
2,359
Oregon
Yeahright. Before someone makes their day at my expense, yeah that date above was wrong. It should be Feb. 24 of course.
 
Feb 2018
3,153
2,359
Oregon
A 401k is not a CD or any articular fixed asset. You pick them based on your age and tolerance.
So according to you, 401k plans are "picked based on your age and tolerance"? WTF are you talking about? Do you know?
 
Jul 2015
6,560
2,621
chicago
So according to you, 401k plans are "picked based on your age and tolerance"? WTF are you talking about? Do you know?
Yes I know. There are lots of options within most 401k plans. When you are close to retirement you shift to lower earning assets that are more secure so you do not risk much. When you are younger you are in assets that have higher earning potential but are more risky. Why is it you are questioning this basic stuff?