The US vs China - Thucydides’s Trap

Apr 2013
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Left coast
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To prevent war with China, study World War I ... Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon professor of government at Harvard Kennedy School, for the WashPost:

  • "The ... structural cause of World War I follows a familiar historical pattern: a rapidly rising power, Germany, challenging the primacy of an established one, Great Britain, which had ruled the world for a century."
  • "In this dangerous dynamic — the Thucydides’s Trap — both rivals become extremely vulnerable to third-party provocations, or even accidents, that trigger a cascade of reactions, at the end of which they find themselves in a war neither wanted."
Wikipedia said:
Thucydides Trap
Wikipedia said:
. Allison coined the phrase Thucydides Trap to refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war.Thucydides wrote: "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
This article was in the Axios AM Newsletter. The parallels with the lead-up to WWI are scary.