Trump surges in polls

Sep 2019
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Polls are just stupid.

It only accounts for the people they ask. But if you put a poll of 1,000 people up that 70% of them agree with Trump (or disagree) you're still only talking about 1,000 people. Or even 10,000 isn't really a good judge of what the entire country thinks.
 
Dec 2018
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2,064
Wisconsin
Polls are just stupid.

It only accounts for the people they ask. But if you put a poll of 1,000 people up that 70% of them agree with Trump (or disagree) you're still only talking about 1,000 people. Or even 10,000 isn't really a good judge of what the entire country thinks.
While there's no way I can prove this as a random poster on a random forum, I've worked in qualitative and quantitative research before. I can assure you this assertion, while not uncommon, is a narrow way of viewing the importance and accuracy of polling.

There are any number of articles explaining why less than 5% of a population can accurately represent a larger population, depending on how the poll is conducted. While polling methodology is continously evolving, there are best practices to look for when assessing the reliability of a poll.

See link below for an intro

 
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Sep 2019
913
558
Here
While there's no way I can prove this as a random poster on a random forum, I've worked in qualitative and quantitative research before. I can assure you this assertion, while not uncommon, is a narrow way of viewing the importance and accuracy of polling.

There are any number of articles explaining why less than 5% of a population can accurately represent a larger population, depending on how the poll is conducted. While polling methodology is continously evolving, there are best practices to look for when assessing the reliability of a poll.

See link below for an intro

I can show you how one could sell ice to eskimos too.

Until 1/2 of the population is asked then there's no honest way to reflect the the majority of people with a poll where only a few thousand are asked.
 
Dec 2018
2,879
2,064
Wisconsin
I can show you how one could sell ice to eskimos too.

Until 1/2 of the population is asked then there's no honest way to reflect the the majority of people with a poll where only a few thousand are asked.
Correct. But polls do not say for certain what is going to happen. They predict the liklihood of something happening.

A reliable poll should have a confidence level of 95% and a standard deviation of 2%. For example, let's say a poll shows 50% of Americans want Trump impeached and removed from office. What that actually means is there's a 95% chance that between 48% and 52% of Americans want Trump impeached and removed.

Again, I strongly suggest you look into this. If you think polling is a crap shoot, you should talk to all the fortune 500 companies who spend hundreds of millions of dollars on polling data every single year.
 
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Sep 2019
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Correct. But polls do not say for certain what is going to happen. They predict the liklihood of something happening.

A reliable poll should have a confidence level of 95% and a standard deviation of 2%. For example, let's say a poll shows 50% of Americans want Trump impeached and removed from office. What that actually means is there's a 95% chance that between 48% and 52% of Americans want Trump impeached and removed.

Again, I strongly suggest you look into this. If you think polling is a crap shoot, you should talk to all the fortune 500 companies who spend hundreds of millions of dollars on polling data every single year.
Another thing wrong with polls, they use percentages instead of actual numbers. That can be very misleading.

I used to get polled by some right leaning polling company. I got tired of all the phone calls, so I started answering their questions from a left leaning perspective. I didn't even get through the last phone call. Dude hung up on me. And they never called back.
 
Dec 2018
2,879
2,064
Wisconsin
Another thing wrong with polls, they use percentages instead of actual numbers. That can be very misleading.

I used to get polled by some right leaning polling company. I got tired of all the phone calls, so I started answering their questions from a left leaning perspective. I didn't even get through the last phone call. Dude hung up on me. And they never called back.
And reliable research facilities will look at collective responses from an individual and if there are inconsistencies, like if someone is trying to throw off the data, they'll disregard that respondent as an outlier.

For the third time, I suggest looking into the practice of polling as it’s not smoke and mirrors as you make it sound.
 
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