Trump Won't Be Impeached but..........

Dec 2015
13,770
12,646
Arizona
#1
The major issue for political pundits regarding 2019 is whether Donald Trump’s presidency will survive the year leading into the 2020 elections. Their focus is on the likelihood as to whether Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives and then removed by the U.S. Senate.

Trump will not be removed from office by the Constitutional impeachment and removal process.

Instead, the self-professed supreme dealmaker will use his presidency as a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities in 2019, agreeing to leave office in exchange for the relevant authorities not pursuing criminal charges against him, his children or the Trump Organization.

Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives for high crimes and misdemeanors, specifically his involvement in directing his former attorney and fixer Michael Cohen to commit a felony by making illegal in-kind contributions to the Trump campaign and concealing them. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York has already obtained Cohen’s guilty plea to this conduct. Democrats now control the House of Representatives, and the votes will be there for the needed impeachment majority.
In order for the Senate to remove Trump from office, however, there must be a vote of at least two thirds of the senators affirming the House-passed Articles of Impeachment. That would require a defection against Trump of at least 20 Republican senators.

That is highly unlikely, regardless of how compelling the impeachment case may be. All but five of the 53 GOP senators represent solid Republican Red states. Their incumbency will not be threatened by their vote against removal of the president. Each such senator runs a serious risk, however, of a pro-Trump primary election challenge if he or she supports the removal of Trump from office.

The legal danger to Trump is developing more in the office of the attorney general of New York State, the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and in the Office of the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. In response to a lawsuit from the attorney general of New York State, Donald Trump agreed to shut down the Trump Foundation. The lawsuit alleged “a shocking pattern of illegality involving the Trump Foundation –- including unlawful coordination with the Trump presidential campaign, repeated and willful self-dealing, and much more."

The lawsuit implicates all three Trump children as well, seeking to bar them, as well as their father, from serving on the boards of other New York nonprofits.
t is now clear that the investigations of Donald Trump are now focused on possible criminal conduct of the Trump children, as well. Donald Trump Jr. has reportedly told confidants that he expects to be indicted by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III for actions taken by him during the campaign as well.

There's more here: Ex-Bush and Whitman adviser: Trump won’t be impeached, but he will leave the presidency in 2019

Mueller says he will wrap things up in February so we don't have long to wait, but the author of this opinion piece and I agree. Trump will not run in 2020. If Trump quits (to save his children and that is out of character for him--to save anyone but himself), Prez Pence will pardon him and Pence will run in 2020. What do you think?
 
Apr 2013
34,913
23,623
Left coast
#3
I still think, and this is the opinion of several Congress watchers, that not only is an impeachment not likely to pass in the Senate, but in fact the attempt would further energize his base and end up being counterproductive.

The political situation has become far too much R vs D, period.
 
Likes: imaginethat
Dec 2018
659
395
Wisconsin
#4
I still think, and this is the opinion of several Congress watchers, that not only is an impeachment not likely to pass in the Senate, but in fact the attempt would further energize his base and end up being counterproductive.

The political situation has become far too much R vs D, period.
Agreed. See what happened to the democratic base after Newt Gingrich and Republicans tried to impeach Bill Clinton. Democratic enthusiasm went through the roof.

Only way Democrats will attempt to impeach Trump is if:
A. Evidence is shown Trump committed real crimes during the campaign, or
B. Evidence is shown Trump is legislating in office specifically to make himself money

A and B are both going to be difficult to show because as we've seen in the 24-hour news cycle, you can put a political spin on anything these days.
 
Likes: imaginethat
Dec 2015
13,770
12,646
Arizona
#5
I still think, and this is the opinion of several Congress watchers, that not only is an impeachment not likely to pass in the Senate, but in fact the attempt would further energize his base and end up being counterproductive.

The political situation has become far too much R vs D, period.
I agree but I don't doubt that the HOUSE will begin proceedings. They probably feel the need to flex their muscles. They must be on a real power trip right now. Haa
 
Dec 2018
659
395
Wisconsin
#7
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhh sorry Clara but call me a skeptic.

1. The headline alone says Mueller "May" submit a report in Feb.
2. We've heard over and over again the probe is ending soon and it's never come to fruition. It's also very possible the "sources" in these stories could be individuals on the Trump side trying to push a narrative the report should be ending, ginning up frustrations when the probe doesn't end.

Not saying it won't end in Feb, I'm just not convinced by the evidence that's been presented.
 
Dec 2015
13,770
12,646
Arizona
#8
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhh sorry Clara but call me a skeptic.

1. The headline alone says Mueller "May" submit a report in Feb.
2. We've heard over and over again the probe is ending soon and it's never come to fruition. It's also very possible the "sources" in these stories could be individuals on the Trump side trying to push a narrative the report should be ending, ginning up frustrations when the probe doesn't end.

Not saying it won't end in Feb, I'm just not convinced by the evidence that's been presented.

True. You may be right, but I think Steely Bob is wrapping things up.
 
Mar 2008
9,482
4,815
australia
#9
the house may well begin proceedings, but the senate will end it with no impeachment.

and then sell it as a great victory.

"we won. we were right and the house was wrong. the democrats were just playing games trying to smear an innocent president. you cannot trust the democrats, they arent worth your vote. the republicans have been vindicated as the honest party and the democrats a party of desperate liars"

i think it would be a mistake for the democrats to try.
 
Mar 2008
9,482
4,815
australia
#10
of course it might go the other way

the house starts impeachment, there is a republican backlash against the white house and the senate does vote to impeach trump, and he is removed from office

then - president pence.

again, it would be a mistake for the democrats to try.
 

Similar Discussions