voting fraud in Texas

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#2
Anecdotal evidence is evidence from anecdotes, i.e., evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony. When compared to other types of evidence, anecdotal evidence is generally regarded as limited in value due to a number of potential weaknesses, but may be considered within the scope of scientific method as some anecdotal evidence can be both empirical and verifiable, e.g. in the use of case studies in medicine. Other anecdotal evidence, however, does not qualify as scientific evidence, because its nature prevents it from being investigated by the scientific method.

Anecdotal evidence is evidence from anecdotes, i.e., evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony. When compared to other types of evidence, anecdotal evidence is generally regarded as limited in value due to a number of potential weaknesses, but may be considered within the scope of scientific method as some anecdotal evidence can be both empirical and verifiable, e.g. in the use of case studies in medicine. Other anecdotal evidence, however, does not qualify as scientific evidence, because its nature prevents it from being investigated by the scientific method.

Anecdotal evidence - Wikipedia
 
Sep 2018
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Myth of Voter Fraud
It is important to protect the integrity of our elections. But we must be careful not to undermine free and fair access to the ballot in the name of preventing voter fraud.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly, and falsely, claimed millions voted illegally. Yet examination after examination of voter fraud claims reveal fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is nearly non-existent, and much of the problems associated with alleged fraud relates to unintentional mistakes by voters or election administrators. Election officials and leaders of the president’s own party also agree fraud is not widespread.
The Brennan Center's seminal report "The Truth About Voter Fraud" conclusively demonstrated most allegations of fraud turn out to be baseless — and that of the few allegations remaining, most reveal election irregularities and other forms of election misconduct. And numerous other studies have reached the same conclusion. In a recent report, "Noncitizen Voting: The Missing Millions," the Brennan Center debunked President Trump's claim that millions improperly voted in the 2016 election.
Voter fraud is not acceptable in our elections, but we must find solutions that address actual problems instead of imposing policies that make it harder for millions of eligible Americans to participate in our democracy. Myth of Voter Fraud
 
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Studies and Analyses on the Prevalence of Impersonation Fraud
 
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  • Lorraine Minnite, :The Politics of Voter Fraud,” Demos, 2007. Minnite tracked incidence rates for voter fraud for two years, and found that the rare fraud that was reported generally could be traced to “false claims by the loser of a close race, mischief and administrative or voter error.”
  • Lorraine Minnite, “Election Day Registration: A Study of Voter Fraud Allegations and Findings on Voter Roll Security,” Demos, 2007. In a study focused on six states with long-standing laws allowing voters to register on Election Day, Minnite concluded that “the collective evidence suggests there has been very little voter fraud” in those states during the measured period (1999-2005). Minnite examined 4,000 news articles from the reviewed states that mentioned “voter or election fraud” and found “only 10 discrete incidents of voter fraud or alleged voter fraud that appeared to have merit.” Of those, only one concerned an allegation of impersonation fraud.
  • Brennan Center for Justice, “Case Studies by State” (Highlights from The Truth About Voter Fraud), 2007. As part of the larger Truth About Voter Fraud report, the Brennan Center highlighted case studies covering nine elections in five states (Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Wisconsin) that each demonstrated exceedingly rare rates of individual voter fraud.
  • Lorraine Minnite, “An Analysis of Voter Fraud in the United States,” Demos, 2005. As part of research conducted for a larger report on election security, researchers assessed the incidence of fraud in 12 states over a ten-year period. They searched news databases, reviewed case law, and contacted selected state officials. Their report concluded that “voter fraud appears to be very rare” in the examined states, and concluded that many of the cases that garnered media attention were ultimately unsubstantiated upon further review.
  • Hans Von Spakovsky, “Stolen Identities, Stolen Votes: A Case Study in Voter Impersonation,” 2008, a report alleging that in-person voter impersonation is difficult to detect and more widespread than commonly believed. The primary incident cited by the report is a 1984 New York court case regarding a scheme by election officials. Professor Richard Hasen analyzed the grand jury document cited in the case and noted the fraud scheme would have been stopped by current safeguards, and would not have been stopped by a voter identification requirement.
  • John Fund, “Stealing Elections: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy,” 2004, a recounting a number of prominent examples of election misconduct, including allegations of vote buying, voter registration fraud, and illegal voting with absentee ballots. Media Matters criticized the book for distorting certain incidents. These include suggestions of vote buying in Wisconsin in 2002, which could not be corroborated by news reports, and allegations of fraudulent registration and improper counting of ballots in South Dakota in 2002, supported by affidavits which the state attorney general dismissed as false.
  • American Center for Voting Rights, “Vote Fraud, Intimidation & Suppression in the 2004 Presidential Election,” 2005, an “after action report” of the 2004 election. The report used court records, police reports, and news articles to document incidents of alleged voter fraud, intimidation, and suppression. The report alleged that thousands of illegal votes were cast in 2004 based on reports of misconduct in 16 states. A critique of the report by Professor Richard Hasen noted that many of the examples of misconduct in the report were anecdotal. The vast majority of the examples of misconduct in the report concerned allegations of voter registration misconduct rather than illegal voting.
 
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Studies and Analyses on the Prevalence of Noncitizen or Nonresident Voting

 
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Studies and Analyses on Fraud Claims Predicated on List Matching Methods

  • Justin Levitt, “The Truth About Voter Fraud,” Brennan Center for Justice, 2007. The Brennan Center’s report found that many reported incidences of fraud can actually be attributed to “bad matching”: false positives that arise when comparing the voter rolls against some other source to find alleged double or ineligible voters. These can arise from a number of sources: Errors in the underlying data can lead to an incorrect match when one of the data sources is missing information; Partial matches can take place when a search confuses two similar but not identical records, like two people with the same first and last name but different middle names; And insufficiently precise matching criteria can lead to vulnerabilities like the “birthdate problem:” the surprisingly likely occurrence that, on a large enough list, two different individuals will have the same name and birth date.
  • Lorraine Minnite, “The Politics of Voter Fraud,” Demos, 2007. Minnite found that attempts to match lists to identify illegal voting created a high number of “false positives,” leading to wildly inflated initial estimates of illegal voting. Her report highlighted examples of this from Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, and New Jersey.
  • Brennan Center for Justice and Michael McDonald, “Analysis of the September 15, 2005 Voter Fraud Report Submitted to the New Jersey Attorney General,” 2005. The report from the Brennan Center and McDonald, an election law expert at the University of Florida, found that a list of purportedly illegitimate voters was substantially flawed on a match of first name, last name, and date of birth alone, mismatching middle initials were ignored, and other data errors occurred
 
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Studies and Analyses on Fraud Claims Predicated on Voter List Maintenance Issues

 
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#9
Court Findings on the Frequency of Voter Fraud

  • Texas, 2016. The Fifth Circuit, in an opinion finding that Texas’s strict photo ID law is racially discriminatory, noted that there were “only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade” before Texas passed its law.
  • North Carolina, 2016. In its opinion striking down North Carolina’s omnibus restrictive election law —which included a voter ID requirement — as purposefully racially discriminatory, the Fourth Circuit noted that the state “failed to identify even a single individual who has ever been charged with committing in-person voter fraud in North Carolina.”
  • Wisconsin, 2016. A federal trial court in Wisconsin reviewing that state’s strict photo ID law found “that impersonation fraud — the type of fraud that voter ID is designed to prevent — is extremely rare” and “a truly isolated phenomenon that has not posed a significant threat to the integrity of Wisconsin’s elections.”
  • Indiana, 2007. The Supreme Court, in its opinion in Crawford upholding Indiana’s voter ID law, noted that the record in the case “contains no evidence of any [in-person voter impersonation] fraud actually occurring in Indiana at any time in its history.” The Court instead pointed to combatting the perception of fraud as a basis for upholding the law. Two of the jurists involved in the case at the Supreme Court and appellate level subsequently questioned the decision and the validity of Voter ID laws in combatting fraud.
 
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Sources on Government Investigations Aimed at Uncovering Voter Fraud
  • Kansas, 2015-17. Secretary of State Kris Kobach, a longtime proponent of voter suppression efforts and vice chair of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, successfully lobbied state lawmakers in 2015 to grant his office special power to prosecute voter fraud. He reportedly claimed to know of 100 such cases in his state. In the nearly two years since being granted these powers, he has obtained nine convictions..
  • Texas, 2014. Texas lawmakers purported to pass its strict photo ID law to protect against voter fraud. A court filing in a lawsuit regarding the law stated that the Texas Special Investigations Unit identified one conviction and one guilty plea regarding voter impersonation in Texas from 2002 through 2014.
  • Iowa, 2014. A multi-year investigation into fraud led to 27 prosecutions out of 1.6 million ballots cast. In 2014, the state issued a report on the investigation citing six prosecutions.
  • Colorado, 2013. A voter fraud investigation, in which the Secretary of State alleged that 100 people voted illegally, yielded one conviction for false registration.
  • Florida, 2012. Governor Rick Scott initiated an effort to remove noncitizen registrants from the state’s rolls. The state’s list of 182,000 alleged noncitizen registrants quickly dwindled to 198. This amended list contained many false positives, such as a WWII veteran born in Brooklyn. In the end, only 85 noncitizen registrants were identified and one was convicted of fraud, out of a total of 12 million registered voters.
  • Wisconsin, 2008-11. A state task force charged 20 individuals with a range of election-related crimes. The majority charged were individuals with prior criminal convictions..
  • Maine, 2011. An investigation into 200 college students accused of fraud revealed no evidence of wrongdoing. Shortly thereafter, an Elections Commission appointed by a Republican secretary of state found “there is little or no history in Maine of voter impersonation or identification fraud.”
  • Florida, 2011. A criminal investigation into nine individuals who allegedly committed absentee ballot fraud in a school board election led to all criminal charges being dismissed against all voters.
  • United States Department of Justice, 2002-05. As detailed by Lorraine Minnite in an expert report filed as part of litigation, a specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed with the goal of finding instances of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent. The task force released multiple documents. There was no evidence that any of these incidents involved in-person impersonation fraud. Over a five-year period, they found “no concerted effort to tilt the election.”
Myth of Voter Fraud Resources on Voter Fraud Claims
 

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