Why America would lose a trade war with China

Sep 2018
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cleveland ohio
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Unfortunately for Trump, it’s not the 1980s anymore

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By Professor Winter Nie



During his election campaign, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 35% to 45% tariffs on Chinese imports to force China into renegotiating its trade balance with the U.S. The immediate result of that would be a fierce trade war that America would almost certainly lose. And while we don’t know yet whether Trump will follow through with this threat, his abandonment of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) in his first few days in office is an indication that he is not shying away from his campaign pledges.

Trump is now entering uncharted waters. He has already demonstrated his ignorance of Asian affairs when he publicly accepted a phone call from Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, in December, and shortly afterwards announced that he didn’t understand the “One China” policy, or why he should respect it. His abandonment of the TPP will simply accelerate China’s displacement of America as the world’s leading economic power.


Unfortunately for Trump, it’s not the 80s anymore. Twenty years ago, the situation might have been different. China was dramatically underdeveloped, and it wanted access to Western technology and manufacturing techniques. China has most of what it needs now, and what it doesn’t have it can easily obtain from vendors outside the U.S. While the American market looked enticing a few decades ago, it is relatively mature, and today the newer emerging market countries have become much more interesting to Beijing.

Why America would lose a trade war with China
 

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