Will Donald Trump win 2020 re-election?

Will Trump win re-election in 2020?


  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .
Nov 2017
2,161
994
.
#1
Just curious about what people think about Trump winning re-election. Do you think Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020?
 
Apr 2013
38,309
26,302
La La Land North
#2
A recent WaPo analysis of polls made them conclude that if nothing changes, it looks like again Trump would lose the popular vote but still get a (much thinner) majority of EC votes. This was from a tweet and they and NYT have killer paywalls I can't beat.
 
Nov 2017
2,161
994
.
#3
A recent WaPo analysis of polls made them conclude that if nothing changes, it looks like again Trump would lose the popular vote but still get a (much thinner) majority of EC votes. This was from a tweet and they and NYT have killer paywalls I can't beat.
Roughly a year prior to 2016 election, what was your expectation about who would win POTUS, including the popular v EC votes?

BTW, the popular vote is totally meaningless. Candidates gear campaigns to win EC votes. Personally, I think if the constitution were changed to make the POTUS office a popular vote rather than EC vote, based election, Trump would still have (had) essentially the same potential to win (for 2016 & 2020). Trump would simply (have) gear(ed) his campaign to win the popular vote; it's just a matter of optimizing a campaign (for any candidate) for whatever the winning criteria is & Trump focuses on winning what matters, not popularity contests.
 
Mar 2013
10,020
10,805
Middle Tennessee
#4
Trumps best polling numbers were his first day in office. Since then he has consistently polled in the mid to low 40s. More important, his negative numbers have stayed in the upper 40s and even into the low 50s.

Those are not encouraging numbers and some of the swing states are already in play. It’s not impossible for him to win as long as the economy stays strong. But if it slows even a little he’ll have a damned hard road to hoe.
 
Nov 2017
2,161
994
.
#6
Trumps best polling numbers were his first day in office. Since then he has consistently polled in the mid to low 40s. More important, his negative numbers have stayed in the upper 40s and even into the low 50s.

Those are not encouraging numbers and some of the swing states are already in play. It’s not impossible for him to win as long as the economy stays strong. But if it slows even a little he’ll have a damned hard road to hoe.
Not that there aren't any - I don't know, but are there any past presidents who lost a 2nd term due to the economy slowing down? If the economy totally went to crap, then I would expect the incumbent to a hard time winning re-election, but you're saying if it slows even a little.
 
Mar 2013
10,020
10,805
Middle Tennessee
#8
Not that there aren't any - I don't know, but are there any past presidents who lost a 2nd term due to the economy slowing down? If the economy totally went to crap, then I would expect the incumbent to a hard time winning re-election, but you're saying if it slows even a little.

What I'm saying is Trump's polling numbers are marginal at best. He's made a great deal of noise over "his" economy. Take the weak numbers and a down turn in "the greatest economy ever" and he could be in trouble pretty fast.

"Read my lips, no new taxes" !!!! After the first gulf war Bush Sr had some of the best numbers ever. But a year and a half, new taxes and a sluggish economy made him a one term president. And I hated it. I liked Sr a lot !!
 

Panther

Forum Staff
Jul 2013
5,725
3,248
North Texas
#9
Not that there aren't any - I don't know, but are there any past presidents who lost a 2nd term due to the economy slowing down? If the economy totally went to crap, then I would expect the incumbent to a hard time winning re-election, but you're saying if it slows even a little.
George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter come to mind.
 

Panther

Forum Staff
Jul 2013
5,725
3,248
North Texas
#10
What I'm saying is Trump's polling numbers are marginal at best. He's made a great deal of noise over "his" economy. Take the weak numbers and a down turn in "the greatest economy ever" and he could be in trouble pretty fast.

"Read my lips, no new taxes" !!!! After the first gulf war Bush Sr had some of the best numbers ever. But a year and a half, new taxes and a sluggish economy made him a one term president. And I hated it. I liked Sr a lot !!
Same here! I thought he was a good President who got shafted. He was the type of guy who saw it as nothing personal, just business.

And then the Godfather theme begins to play as the door is shut on Bush sr briefly witnessing D.C. power brokers kissing Clinton's hand.