Will Donald Trump win 2020 re-election?

Will Trump win re-election in 2020?


  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .
Nov 2017
2,161
1,004
.
What I'm saying is Trump's polling numbers are marginal at best. He's made a great deal of noise over "his" economy. Take the weak numbers and a down turn in "the greatest economy ever" and he could be in trouble pretty fast.

"Read my lips, no new taxes" !!!! After the first gulf war Bush Sr had some of the best numbers ever. But a year and a half, new taxes and a sluggish economy made him a one term president. And I hated it. I liked Sr a lot !!
Do you think that anything Trump has done so far is as egregious as the Bush Sr. "read my lips no new taxes" then raising taxes debacle? If so, what?
 
Nov 2017
2,161
1,004
.
George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter come to mind.
Is the economy currently going for Trump the way it went for these two? The reason I'm asking is because it can seem subjective, or based on how "slowing down" is measured.
 
Nov 2005
9,382
3,890
California
No clue until I have a better idea who his opponent is.
Exactly!
And then there is a whole year plus of activity, debate and discussion to occur... If the economy were to take a downturn before the election, that would be a huge factor.

It's way too early to have any good answer for this.


What I'm saying is Trump's polling numbers are marginal at best. He's made a great deal of noise over "his" economy. Take the weak numbers and a down turn in "the greatest economy ever" and he could be in trouble pretty fast.
Yes!

Another example:
Heck, if it weren't for the "Great Recession", Obama would not have been even a blip on the 2008 radar.
But the economy took a huge down-turn, McCain was not acknowledging the problem enough and Clinton was not inspiring "hope" the way that Obama was and suddenly it became Obama's game with his "Hope and Change" message.


"Read my lips, no new taxes" !!!! After the first gulf war Bush Sr had some of the best numbers ever. But a year and a half, new taxes and a sluggish economy made him a one term president. And I hated it. I liked Sr a lot !!
It's funny how time changes perspective on presidents. Recessions are cyclical and I don't know of anything in Bush Sr's era recession which was exacerbated by him. But it impacted his re-election.
If he had managed to hang on for a second term, he would have presided over the very early part of the dot com boom. That increased growth would have been part of "his legacy"...
 
Nov 2005
9,382
3,890
California
Do you think that anything Trump has done so far is as egregious as the Bush Sr. "read my lips no new taxes" then raising taxes debacle? If so, what?
I admit I have some bias, but Trump has essentially conditioned people to ignore his b.s.
During Bush Sr's era, that one example turned into a mantra.
With Trump, he has promised that Mexico will pay for the wall, then turned around and insisted that America should pay for the wall. He has proclaimed that he would take full blame for a government shutdown, then within a matter of a few hours tried to blame Democrats for shutting down the government. (And that's even ignoring the fact that Trump sat around and did nothing about building a wall while he had a Republican majority in House and Senate, but then when Dems took the House that is when he tried for legislative progresss[/b]...

With Bush Sr's era, we had one "broken promise" and it was perceived as a major one. Taxes were raised to help reduce the deficit situation, despite the promise.
With Trump's era, we have a multitude of lies and broken promises that some have become tone deaf to. Trump is raising the deficit in a way that Bush Sr would not have dreamed of, and Trump cut taxes...

Trump would not have survived in Bush Sr's era.
 
Mar 2013
10,270
11,099
Middle Tennessee
Is the economy currently going for Trump the way it went for these two? The reason I'm asking is because it can seem subjective, or based on how "slowing down" is measured.

Less so for Carter. He inherited a pretty abysmal economy. His inability to improve it (example double digit interest rates for mortgages) and the whole Iran hostage situation, was his down fall. Bush on the other hand inherited a pretty good economy. We had easily won the first gulf war hands down which made him immensely popular approval ratings in the high 80s (89 at one point). But by the next election the economy was heading for recession and there had been a tax package passed by congress. Approval rating 29.

So, even with his marginal numbers, as long as the economy holds, and he doesn't do something stupid like a shooting war with Iran, as much as it pains me to say so, Trump has a chance of reelection. He is very popular with his base. The rest of the country, especially those all important swing voters ?? Not so much. However, I don't think it would take much of a slip in the economy to turn the tide. A drastic change in the middle east could also sway the vote.
 
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RNG

Forum Staff
Apr 2013
39,718
27,500
La La Land North
What I'm saying is Trump's polling numbers are marginal at best. He's made a great deal of noise over "his" economy. Take the weak numbers and a down turn in "the greatest economy ever" and he could be in trouble pretty fast.

"Read my lips, no new taxes" !!!! After the first gulf war Bush Sr had some of the best numbers ever. But a year and a half, new taxes and a sluggish economy made him a one term president. And I hated it. I liked Sr a lot !!
The death of Ross Perot had many commentators note that his vote splitting in that election was a big factor in Bush Sr.'s loss.
 
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Reactions: Panther
Nov 2017
2,161
1,004
.
I admit I have some bias, but Trump has essentially conditioned people to ignore his b.s.
During Bush Sr's era, that one example turned into a mantra.
With Trump, he has promised that Mexico will pay for the wall, then turned around and insisted that America should pay for the wall. He has proclaimed that he would take full blame for a government shutdown, then within a matter of a few hours tried to blame Democrats for shutting down the government. (And that's even ignoring the fact that Trump sat around and did nothing about building a wall while he had a Republican majority in House and Senate, but then when Dems took the House that is when he tried for legislative progresss[/b]...

With Bush Sr's era, we had one "broken promise" and it was perceived as a major one. Taxes were raised to help reduce the deficit situation, despite the promise.
With Trump's era, we have a multitude of lies and broken promises that some have become tone deaf to. Trump is raising the deficit in a way that Bush Sr would not have dreamed of, and Trump cut taxes...

Trump would not have survived in Bush Sr's era.
I still recall quite vividly & how emphatic Bush Sr. was, when he was campaigning, and said "Read my lips! No new taxes!"

Yes, Trump has this issue where he made all those promises with the wording he used & how it comes across as a bit weasely-sounding, but I don't think it's as clear black & white as saying that he isn't going to raise taxes, then having the economy get lousy; Trump is playing semantics, or speaking figuratively, by meaning that in a round-about way Mexico is going to pay for it; in an economic way it's probably true, which is what's probably saving him from being a liar, on that issue. BTW, I don't know if remember or know, but Bush Sr. was being called a wimp. LOL

Anyways, as long as Trump is overall delivering what voters want, regardless of how, when, or where the funding to build the wall is coming from, I don't think there's something there that'll offend voters the way "read my lips no new taxes" promise being broken & the damage involved, offended voters.

I guess we'll see, but even if Trump's opponents try to use this against him, I expect he'll pull something out of his bag of tricks to counter it; he seems like he's always ready to expect things like that with his 4D chess playing skills.
 
Nov 2017
2,161
1,004
.
Less so for Carter. He inherited a pretty abysmal economy. His inability to improve it (example double digit interest rates for mortgages) and the whole Iran hostage situation, was his down fall. Bush on the other hand inherited a pretty good economy. We had easily won the first gulf war hands down which made him immensely popular approval ratings in the high 80s (89 at one point). But by the next election the economy was heading for recession and there had been a tax package passed by congress. Approval rating 29.

So, even with his marginal numbers, as long as the economy holds, and he doesn't do something stupid like a shooting war with Iran, as much as it pains me to say so, Trump has a chance of reelection. He is very popular with his base. The rest of the country, especially those all important swing voters ?? Not so much. However, I don't think it would take much of a slip in the economy to turn the tide. A drastic change in the middle east could also sway the vote.
I agree; I think he probably needs to quit messing around with Iran. I don't know that it could ruin his chances of winning a re-election (my guess would be that maybe it could), but I would just SMH if he did.
 
May 2018
4,653
3,649
USA
41% approval rating, 55%+ hates his guts. His only achievement was a massive upper class tax cut from which the middle class got peanuts. And they KNOW it. And that isn't even counting how Trump has turned the USA into an international laughing stock.

Trump is in big, big trouble.
 
Mar 2013
10,270
11,099
Middle Tennessee
The death of Ross Perot had many commentators note that his vote splitting in that election was a big factor in Bush Sr.'s loss.

I had forgotten about Perot. But yes, he split the Republican vote and helped hand the election to Clinton.